Explainer | What’s next after Hong Kong electoral changes? All eyes now on whether opposition parties will boycott polls
- Opposition camp mulls next step even as rivals insist they should not give up on polls as overhaul is a system upgrade and more representative
- Pro-establishment bloc will also have to raise its game in Legco race, especially with shake-up in votes configuration
In this second instalment, we look at reactions to the electoral shake-up from both sides of the political divide, and what’s next.
Why the need to rewrite the rules?
Beijing deemed the move necessary to screen out “unpatriotic” opposition members and those who posed a risk to national security. At the closing of the plenary session for the state’s top legislature in March, Premier Li Keqiang hailed the resolution for the changes as a key step to improve the “one country, two systems” governing policy following the 2019 social unrest in Hong Kong.
“The decision was clear. It is to insist on and improve the one country, two systems framework. To insist on ‘patriots administering Hong Kong’ is to ensure the long-term implementation of one country, two systems,” he said at the time.
Like other pro-establishment figures, former Hong Kong chief executive Leung Chun-ying blamed the opposition camp during a televised interview on Saturday.
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What has riled critics and the opposition camp?
Opposition figures see the changes as a regression, citing a perceived cutback on democratic elements in the Legislative Council, with directly elected seats slashed from 35 to 20.
Democratic Party chairman Lo Kin-hei said the electoral set-up presented a “very big hurdle”.
Candidates in the Legco elections would have to secure nominations from an Election Committee dominated by their pro-establishment rivals, while also passing a vetting committee.
“The new requirement raises the barriers to entry for all opposition members,” said Fernando Cheung Chiu-hung, a former lawmaker from the bloc. “There are gates everywhere – from nomination and vetting to the number of seats we can get. It is very discouraging.”
Former lawmaker and Democratic Party chairwoman Emily Lau Wai-hing called the arrangements “humiliating”.
Pundits have suggested the impacts do not stop at political parties, as professionals seen to have pro-democracy leanings will also see their influence diluted in the functional constituencies.
Ray Yep Kin-man, a political scientist at City University, said Beijing frowned on the fact that in 2019, many professionals in Hong Kong sided with those who opposed the government’s introduction of the now-withdrawn extradition bill, which would have led to the transfer of fugitives to mainland China.
How much influence will Beijing and Hong Kong authorities wield?
At least four bodies handed corporate votes are led by directors based mostly in mainland China, with a few also in Taiwan and the United States, according to another Post investigation.
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The Election Committee is responsible for filling 40 out of 90 seats in the expanded Legco chamber, surpassing the proportion for functional constituencies, which take up 30 seats, and the 20-seat geographical constituencies, where the opposition previously enjoyed the biggest advantage.
What are implications for the pro-establishment camp?
Some politicians from the bloc said the changes meant they would have to raise their game. This may ring true for parties that traditionally relied on direct elections, such as the Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong.
After the shake-up, such groups will only be able to secure half of the 20 seats in the geographical constituencies if the opposition is running, according to a pro-establishment lawmaker who spoke to the Post earlier on condition of anonymity.
These parties will also have to rethink how they can tap the newly available seats.
But some Beijing-friendly groups will also get to join the Election Committee for the first time. They are grass-root bodies representing different mainland provincial clans such as those from Guangdong, Fujian and Guangxi.
Mainland-based Hongkongers will also get seats through “consultant services centres”, run by the Federation of Trade Unions in cities such as Shenzhen, Guangzhou and Dongguan. Local members of “relevant national organisations” – such as the All-China Women’s Federation and All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce – were also handed seats.
What does this all mean for coming elections?
One of the biggest uncertainties centres on whether the opposition camp will still be keen to take part in key elections. For the Legco polls in December, opposition parties have yet to reach a consensus. Two of the biggest groups from the bloc, the Democratic Party and Civic Party, have said they have not made up their mind.
The hurdles aside, opposition parties have been occupied with the arrests of members under the national security law. Many were among 47 opposition figures charged in February with subversion for taking part in unofficial primary to shortlist candidates for last year’s Legco elections, which have been postponed.
A lack of resources is another predicament for the bloc.
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The pro-establishment camp had tried persuading their Democratic Party rivals to run, former chairman Ho Chun-yan told the Post before he was jailed in mid-May. Anthony Wu Ting-yuk, a member of China’s top political advisory body, also offered an olive branch, pledging to nominate Ho’s colleague Emily Lau at the Legco polls.
Beijing officials and pro-establishment figures in Hong Kong have maintained that the overhaul is not aimed at stifling dissent, and that patriotic opposition candidates are welcome to run.
Will Hong Kong still have universal suffrage?
Government officials and pro-establishment heavyweights have framed the electoral changes as a transitory phase. During a March press conference, city leader Lam said: “Article 45 and 68 [of the Basic Law], that is the ultimate goal of achieving universal suffrage respectively for the selection of the chief executive and the formation of Legco, remain intact – not a single word has been changed.
“But it will not happen within my term. We do not have time to allow the system to evolve and establish and mature to attain that objective.”
But Lo, chairman of the Democratic Party, was not convinced.
“Even if there is universal suffrage for Hong Kong one day, it will bear the hallmarks of all the stringent criteria we have now,” he told the Post, referring to what he saw as hoops that candidates would have to jump through before being allowed to stand for office.
