Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam’s talk of ‘visionary’ policy address sparks speculation she is aiming for another five-year term
- Analysts say policy speech could serve as a ‘remarketing’ exercise for her to convince Beijing she should be allowed another five years in office
- But critics suggest her failure to address long-standing housing shortages will raise doubts as to whether she can command the public’s support
Analysts said the policy speech, the final one in Lam’s current term, could serve as a “remarketing” exercise for her to convince Beijing that she should be allowed another five years in office, while some critics suggested her failure to address long-standing housing shortages would raise doubts as to whether she could command the public’s support.
Speculation grew about Lam’s plans after she said on Sunday she would outline her vision for Hong Kong over the next five to 10 years in her policy address.
It could sound more like a policy blueprint penned by a chief executive who had just assumed office, Lam said in a radio interview, adding: “I have been prepared to hear criticism that it’s ‘empty talk’, ‘an armchair strategy’.”
Lau Siu-kai, a vice-chairman of semi-official think tank the Chinese Association for Hong Kong and Macau Studies, said Lam could be dropping hints.
“Take American presidents, for example. They will usually sum up their successes in their last state of the union address,” he said.
“If Lam says she likes to talk about the future, it is a strong hint that she wants to seek re-election and she wants to tell the people what the city will be like in the following five years under another term.
“It will be like a remarketing drive, selling the things people have already bought. Lam needs Beijing to agree with her work and her vision to get the job.”
Lam’s five-year term ends next June 30, and the chief executive election has been scheduled for March. Lam has not formally said whether she plans to seek another term, and no one else has come forward to challenge her for the post either, although her predecessor, Leung Chun-ying, has been rumoured to be considering a comeback.
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In the interview, Lam maintained the March election was not part of her consideration in crafting the policy address.
Cheung Chor-yung, a senior teaching fellow at City University’s department of public policy, pointed to the 2019 social unrest, which was sparked by a now-abandoned bill that would have allowed the extraditions to mainland China.
“She is taking advantage of a consultation exercise for her coming policy address to increase her media exposure. That she wants to stay for another term is obvious. But the 2019 saga showed she, a career bureaucrat, lacked the ability to make good political judgments. But for Beijing’s intervention, Hong Kong could have fallen,” Cheung said.
Lam argued in her interview that she had done “not too bad a job” since taking the helm as leader in 2017 and had fulfilled most of some 900 policy initiatives she had put forward.
Tik Chi-yuen, chairman of the centralist party Third Side, also agreed that as a career bureaucrat she was good at executing livelihood policies.
“If she can spare more time on people’s livelihood issues while leaving the sensitive political jobs to [her deputy] John Lee Ka-chiu, we can expect improvements in governance,” said Tik, who supported Lam during her 2017 election campaign.
On easing hardship among the poor, recurrent government spending on social welfare rose 43.8 per cent from HK$65.3 billion in 2017-18 to HK$93.9 billion in 2020-21. It was expected to further grow to HK$105.7 billion in 2021-22.
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The poverty rate, after factoring in various social security allowances and relief subsidies, also edged down – from 14.7 per cent in 2017 to about 9.2 per cent in 2019.
But critics pointed to her public housing policies. The average waiting time for a public housing flat is 5.8 years, up from 4.7 years in mid-2017.
Chan Hok-fung, a vice-chairman of the pro-Beijing Democratic Alliance of Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong, said the temporary housing was not something to boast about.
“The so-called breakthrough is nothing to be happy about,” he said. “The government should not be satisfied with offering temporary housing for the needy. We hope to see more public flats to be built. The need for the government to build transitional housing is because it has failed to cut the waiting time for public housing.”
Ivan Choy Chi-keung, a political scientist at Chinese University, held similar views.
“In her 2017 election platform, Lam pledged to engage the young people more. It ended up she became the most divisive chief executive and she has in fact disengaged herself with the young people,” he said.
“The missions she now likes to boast she has achieved – the national security law and the so-called improving electoral arrangements – were not in her 2017 platform at all. They are the products of her failed policies.”
He added that he believed Lam was keen to stay in command for another five years but it was too early to say if Beijing would like her to stay.
