The guessing game went into overdrive this week even though no principal officials had declared their candidacy yet and political watchers expressed doubts the central government would allow a contest between ministers as that could only sow unnecessary discord within the same camp.

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Hong Kong Chief Executive election delayed until May as city considers universal Covid-19 testing

Hong Kong Chief Executive election delayed until May as city considers universal Covid-19 testing

“Beijing noted the downward trend in coronavirus cases and an enhanced capability of Hong Kong in controlling the outbreak … Further delaying it could trigger uncertainties ahead of the 25th anniversary of the city’s handover [from British to Chinese rule] which Beijing does not want to see,” a source said, referring to the big celebrations being planned for July 1.

The race, originally scheduled to be held on March 27, was postponed to May 8, with the government invoking the Emergency Regulations Ordinance to effect the delay, as Lam argued in February that the city needed to first battle an alarming surge of infections in the current fifth wave.

Infection numbers plateaued in early March and began to drop to around 15,000 new cases a day in the past week.

On Thursday, speculation mounted within political and financial circles that Chan, the city’s third-ranking official, could resign as early as next week to throw his hat into the ring, while Lee, the No 2 official, was also rumoured to be resigning soon to join the race, even though sources insisted such a scenario of two ministers contesting was highly improbable. Beijing wanted only one preferred candidate to run, they said.

A government source said Chan stood a higher chance than Lee as the financial secretary did not take up much anti-epidemic work from the beginning and so a possible resignation would not affect the government’s operation, while the chief secretary had been occupied by duties to oversee interdepartmental work in the outbreak.

More significantly, Chan was also therefore not as “tainted” as the others in fronting the battle that had caused public panic at several turns during the fifth wave.

The source added Chan had scored “pretty good marks” with his recent budget, which might have made a good impression with Beijing.

In the latest survey by the Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute earlier this month, Chan’s popularity rating stood at 44.7, higher than Lee’s 34.8. Lam’s rating fell five marks from a month earlier to 26.6.

“But we have not received any hints on who is Beijing’s preferred candidate yet,” the source said.

Another source revealed Chan had recently invited people to discuss with him “social issues” not directly covered in the financial aspects of his portfolio, but the insider stopped short of revealing the details.

Asked if Chan could be resigning soon, a spokeswoman for his office said it would not comment on speculation or rumours.

“The financial secretary is making a full effort in the anti-epidemic work and will continue to follow up on the various measures proposed in the budget,” she added.

City leader Lam supplied similar remarks when she was asked repeatedly if she would seek re-election. Without giving an answer, Lam again on Thursday insisted her current focus was on anti-epidemic work only.

Another pro-establishment source, who sits on Lam’s de facto cabinet, the Executive Council, said the poll all hinged on whether Lam would get Beijing’s green light to seek re-election.

“It’s simple. Who takes the chief executive position depends on the central government’s view. While both ministers could be appropriate choices and are experienced in public administration … I cannot see why two senior officials would resign in the near future to compete against each other,” the source said.

Logically, Lee and Chan could resign simultaneously, with a veteran policy bureau chief acting in the former’s post, and the secretary for financial services and the treasury acting in the latter’s role.

A second Exco source said Lam still had an advantage over others, despite the massive criticism she faced recently, adding that Beijing would not allow competition between ministers.

Former chief executives Tung Chee-hwa and Donald Tsang Yam-kuen did not resign from office when they sought re-election in 2002 and 2007 respectively, as electoral laws allow incumbents to continue to serve.

But in December 2016, then financial secretary John Tsang Chun-wah stepped down to run in the chief executive election the following March.

Lam resigned as chief secretary on January 12, 2017 to run in the same election, and their resignations were both officially accepted by China’s State Council on January 16, about one month before the nomination period began on February 14.

The nomination period for the next chief executive race will begin on April 3 and end on April 16.

Lam had said the election could be further pushed back “by weeks”, to no later than June 30, the last day of her term. The city’s electoral officials could assign a new nomination period which must be at least 21 days before the poll.

Lau Siu-kai, vice-president of semi-official think tank the Chinese Association of Hong Kong and Macau Studies, said he believed only one senior official – either Lam, Chan or Lee – would join the race.

“In the run-up to the 2017 poll, both chief secretary Lam and financial secretary John Tsang Chun-wah resigned, but that’s because Tsang was supported by the opposition camp,” he said. “Now that the opposition camp is gone, I think only the candidate who has Beijing’s blessing will run.”

He said a “one-person show” could avoid the infighting that had happened in previous races.

Lau also said there was no room to further postpone the election.

“The epidemic situation is improving. The winner of the race also needs time to form his or her administration. Many constitutional issues could emerge if the election is further postponed,” he said.