On Friday, Chief Executive Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor headed to Shenzhen to meet Xia Baolong, director of the State Council’s Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office, to discuss the race, the Post has learned. But the incumbent city leader has made no indication of whether she will seek a second term.

Lam previously fuelled talk that she may not pursue re-election when she said last Sunday that it would be “up to the next administration” to probe the government’s handling of the ongoing coronavirus outbreak.

Hong Kong’s next leader will be chosen by 1,463 members of the powerful Election Committee which were part of Beijing’s electoral overhaul to ensure that only “patriots” run the city.

Most political insiders who might have some idea of what the coming days would bring have been uncharacteristically tight-lipped too.

Some Election Committee members told the Post that they were recently asked to refrain from commenting on their preferences or from supporting any hopefuls.

“This is a hidden rule known within our circle, yet I received a fresh reminder,” said a committee member and lawmaker, speaking on the condition of anonymity.

Another veteran politician said some of them were told to inform the Beijing liaison office in Hong Kong if they leave the city in the coming weeks before the election.

The blanket of silence was apparent at a high-level closed-door meeting between Lam and 60 pro-Beijing politicians on Monday, where nobody mentioned the election.

“We know what topics to avoid,” said one person who was present. “There was not a single question about Lam’s possible re-election bid by those who have been critical of her administration.”

Prominent pro-establishment figures have also refrained from commenting on the election on social media this week.

Increasingly, the talk among the city’s political elite is that Hong Kong may see a Macau-style election with only one candidate blessed by Beijing.

Ronny Tong Ka-wah, a member of the Executive Council, Lam’s de facto cabinet, said he expected a “one-person show” as Beijing was keen to avoid unnecessary controversy, political bickering or rivalry within the pro-establishment camp.

As far as the central government was concerned, he said, the priority was to fight the city’s devastating fifth wave of Covid-19 infections.

“Beijing prefers stability to competition in the current situation,” he added.

Lau Siu-kai, vice-president of the semi-official think tank Chinese Association of Hong Kong and Macau Studies, said it would be “absolutely unsurprising” to have an election with no contest if Beijing felt that it would best serve Hong Kong’s interests.

“Macau has proved successful in running this model for 17 years. Why not Hong Kong?” he asked.

If that came to pass, who would the single candidate be? So far, there has been only guesswork, with three names floated – Chief Secretary John Lee Ka-chiu, 64, Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po and former city leader Leung Chun-ying, both 67.

A veteran politician said he had heard from a close associate of Leung’s that “preparations were under way” for his comeback.

Leung served as chief executive for one term from 2012 but chose not to seek re-election. Often referred to as “CY Leung”, he is vice-chairman of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, the nation’s top political advisory body.

The politician said Leung’s associate had told him “CY has formed a strong team and has been actively seeking views on various policy areas such as public health”.

So far, however, none of the three heavyweights have indicated any interest in running for the top job.

One message circulating among Hong Kong’s political elite and seen by the Post, said: “If Lee is selected, many people will leave the city because that would signify a police state. If Chan is elected, that would signify the return of CY. Both are bad news.”

Lee was security minister before becoming the city’s No 2 official last year, while Chan joined the administration as development minister during Leung’s leadership term.

Leung’s popularity ratings while in office were lower than those of his two predecessors. According to Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute, his ratings sank to an all-time low of 37 on a scale of 100 in December 2016, half a year before he left his post.

His successor, Lam, started with a rating of 61 in July 2017, which crashed to 19.3 in February 2020 after the city went through months of anti-government protests and faced the first wave of coronavirus infections.

Meanwhile, nobody has ruled out the possibility that Lam could still seek a second term.

A pro-establishment politician with close connections to mainland officials said Lam should not be written off. “She is waiting for the green light from Beijing,” the insider said.

The current mood is a stark contrast with the last race, which saw potential candidates, including from the opposition camp, stepping forward to interact with Election Committee members several months in advance.

Retired judge Woo Kwok-hing was the first to launch his campaign in October 2016, five months before the election.

In mid-January 2017, after then city leader Leung surprised many by announcing that he would not seek re-election, then chief secretary Lam and finance minister John Tsang Chun-wah stepped forward.

As of Thursday, five men and one woman have declared their wish to run for election, although none are considered serious contenders.

The candidates include Checkley Sin Kwok-lam, 65, a film producer and kung fu master, and property investor Titus Wu Sai-chuen, 62, a former member of the Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong.

Little is known about most of the others – Wong Man-hong, Ahm Warm-sun, software engineer Siu Tak-keung, 51, and security guard Lai Hung-mui.

Wu, who failed twice in the past to run for city leader, told the Post he had tried reaching out to about 700 Election Committee members via email or phone since last month, but had received no responses. He could not find the contact details for the rest.

“The response was the coldest this time,” he said.

Sin, the first to toss his hat into the ring in January, has been busy engaging with the public on social media and said he has received plenty of feedback.

Without describing his exchanges with Election Committee members, he remained upbeat about securing enough nominations to run, saying: “I am in the boxing ring and ready for a serious fight.”

But the upcoming race is set to take place under an electoral system recently revised by Beijing, with a new nomination threshold for those wishing to run for chief executive.

Each hopeful must first obtain at least 188 nominations from Election Committee members, including at least 15 from each of its five sectors. Those with enough nominations will then be vetted by another committee to check if they are sufficiently patriotic.

Critics have said that if Hong Kong ended up with a no-contest election, it could hurt the legitimacy of the new administration and also go against the city’s deep-rooted political culture of open debate.

But Andy Ho On-tat, who was information coordinator for former chief executive Donald Tsang Yam-kuen from 2006 to 2012, said that competition would not matter if Beijing valued loyalty to the central authorities and the ability to manage crises above public perceptions of a candidate.

Political commentator Lau said he saw a high chance of a one-person race to avoid “unhealthy competition” in the time left for this year’s election.

“When the one eventually emerges, all Election Committee members will be able to break their silence and give full support to him or her … That’s a way for the bloc to demonstrate solidarity,” he said.

Additional reporting by Gary Cheung and Lilian Cheng