“Since Carrie Lam has officially declared she will not be running, the picture is getting clearer,” said one committee member who had been invited to the talks.

Sources earlier told the Post that Lee, 64, was expected to tender his resignation on Wednesday and “intense work” was under way to “assemble his campaign team” ahead of his possible entry into the race. A two-week nomination process kicked off on Sunday.

A pro-establishment member told the Post that the central government’s liaison office has been calling committee members on Monday and Tuesday to ask whether they would support “the candidate”, which the member believed to mean Lee. The office would be in breach of election rules if it floated Lee’s name while he was still chief secretary.

The source also revealed members had been asked to set April 8 as an important date to nominate the candidate.

Some from the pro-establishment camp, including Peter Lam Kin-ngok, a Hong Kong delegate to the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, lawmakers Horace Cheung Kwok-kwan and Joephy Chan Wing-yan, were seen on Tuesday at the liaison office receiving sample bottles for Covid-19 testing, in preparation for the talks.

Chinese University political scientist Ivan Choy Chi-keung said he believed the identity of the hopeful who had Beijing’s backing would soon be made public, as committee members only had a few working days left to submit their nominations.

Each hopeful must secure at least 188 nominations from the 1,463-strong committee to be eligible, pending approval from a vetting body that would assess the person’s suitability as a “patriot”.

Pro-Beijing veteran Ip Kwok-him, who serves as one of Lam’s top advisers, predicted the upcoming race would be a “one-person show”, as securing the required nominations from committee members was never easy.

“We need a person who can unite people, especially amid such difficult times under the coronavirus pandemic,” he said. “It’s also important for that person to uphold the rule of law, be familiar with government operations and have a sense of commitment to society.”

Since her announcement on Monday morning, central government’s agencies and pro-establishment media have remained largely silent on her decision.

The only state-sanctioned comment came from Xinhua News Agency on Monday, which said: “Lam told a press conference she would not participate in the upcoming chief executive race. She will finish her five-year term on June 30, concluding her 42-year of public service”.

Pro-Beijing newspapers Ta Kung Pao and Wen Wei Po also took a tepid response to the news, carrying their reports only on the second and third pages of the papers, respectively.

The central government’s reticence stands in stark contrast to its response to Leung Chun-ying’s announcement in 2016 that he would not seek a second term. At a hastily arranged press conference on December 9 that year, Leung declared he would not seek re-election citing “family reasons”, three months before polling day.

Less than half an hour later, an HKMAO spokesman said it felt “deeply sorry” that Leung had decided not to run but it would respect his personal decision. The spokesperson said as the chief executive, Leung had “steadfastly implemented the ‘one country, two systems’ formula and the Basic Law”, and had made important contributions in defending state sovereignty, security, and Hong Kong’s stability.

Lau Siu-kai, vice-president of semi-official Chinese Association of Hong Kong and Macau Studies think tank, said that in Lam’s case, it was clear “Beijing did not want to discuss Lam’s performance at all”.

“Beijing is not satisfied with her performance, from the way she handled the social unrest in 2019 to the recent coronavirus pandemic outbreak. Both have upset Hong Kong public and mainland residents,” he said.

“To avoid arousing public resentment, and to avoid directly pointing out her faults, the best [way] is for the central government to remain silent and keep a low profile.”

Mainland residents criticised Lam last month when several cities were locked down due to a surge in infections, many of which came from Hong Kong travellers. Why were their neighbours from across the border allowed to walk along the beach or go shopping when they were stuck for up to a week inside, they asked on social media.

‘One-person show’ expected for Hong Kong leadership poll

Echoing Lau, a source close to the Hong Kong government said Beijing “could hardly justify” a second term for Lam given the more than 1 million cases that emerged in just a few months, when mainland officials were held accountable for just a fraction of that number.

“Many mainland officials have been sacked for poor handling of the pandemic in the past two years,” the insider said. “The central government would find it difficult to explain to the mainlanders and Hong Kong people why it applied a double standard on Hong Kong.”

But the source said Lam had never “totally given up” and expressed confidence that she would serve a second term if the central government had given her the green light.

“That’s why she kept her business-as-usual mode after informing Beijing of her intention [of not staying] last March and still came up with ambitious initiatives, such as the Northern Metropolis project along the mainland border and a government restructuring plan,” the insider said.

The source also noted that Lam had been cautious in the past few months whenever she touched on topics relating to the chief executive race and the next administration.

“She was always careful with her remarks on these topics even during meetings with her close advisers and colleagues,” the source said.

Another insider also close to the government said a good indicator of Beijing’s thinking about any second term for Lam was when Chinese President Xi Jinping put her government on notice on February 16, instructing it to shoulder the “main responsibility” in taking all steps necessary to contain surging Covid-19 infections.

“Since then, Lam had experienced waves of criticisms from all sectors, and as a politician, she would have known her chance was slim,” the source said. “But Lam is a tough person and she would do her best to save her reputation in history.”

What was Xi’s real message to Hong Kong’s leader on its Covid-19 woes?

Political scientist Choy agreed that Xi’s remarks was a clear indicator that Lam has to be held accountable for the city’s mishandling of the pandemic, and the lukewarm attitude from state media reiterated that Beijing was not satisfied with her.

“The indifference further proves the central government’s disappointment with and non-recognition of Lam,” he said. “The treatment was different compared to when Leung made his announcement back in 2016.”

When the city’s first chief executive, Tung Chee-wah, tendered his resignation in March 2005 citing health reasons, two years before his second term ended in 2007, his timing was apparently well-discussed with Beijing.

Soon after he made his announcement, Tung flew to Beijing and was then elected as vice-chairman of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, the nation’s top advisory body, two days later. He remains in the position until now.

Then premier Wen Jiabao approved his resignation in Beijing with a keynote speech at the annual session of China’s parliament, the National People’s Congress, where he spoke highly of Tung’s contribution to the city’s development.

‘He is hard-working, he has few complaints and he has the courage to take responsibility. He has demonstrated in his work a strong sense of responsibility … I believe history will treat him fairly … Compatriots in Hong Kong shall never forget what he has done,” Wen had said.

Additional reporting by Nadia Lam