From this weekend, Britain will start accepting applications from Hong Kong residents with British National (Overseas) status for a new visa that offers a pathway to citizenship. In the final of a three-part series on the BN(O) visa, the Post looks at the potential economic impact on both Britain and Hong Kong. Read parts one and two here. Hongkonger Daisy Leung* and her family paid £500,000 (US$685,150) for a three-storey house in Reading, in the southeast of England, without even seeing it. The deal was sealed online. “It’s about 45 minutes from London by train. It’s a very comfortable place with several parks nearby and the house is newly built,” said Leung, 27, who is preparing to move later this year with her mother, sister, brother-in-law and two-year-old nephew. “We’re not emigrating, we’re fleeing Hong Kong,” the officer in a public institution said. “I asked my mother if she was afraid and she told me: ‘As long as we are together as a family, there is nothing to be afraid about’.” The middle-class family is among many in Hong Kong who bought property in Britain after its government announced plans last July to offer city residents with British National (Overseas) status and their dependants a pathway to citizenship. The move followed Beijing’s imposition of a wide-ranging national security law on Hong Kong last June. From January 31, Hongkongers can apply for BN(O) visas that will allow them to live and work in Britain and, after six years, apply for citizenship. As many as 5.4 million of the city’s 7.5 million population are said to be eligible, although far fewer are likely to actually pack up and leave. A British government estimate published last October predicted that more than a million Hongkongers might move there over the next five years, although that was the maximum forecast. A more likely number was estimated to be around 320,000. Analysts say the battered British economy will receive a welcome boost from the arrival of a significant number of Hongkongers, especially if they are young people, mid-career professionals, the well-heeled and those likely to start businesses. Britain’s economy has been hit severely by the Covid-19 pandemic, with close to 3.7 million confirmed cases and more than 100,000 deaths so far. Officials expect the economy to have shrunk by 11.3 per cent last year, the biggest decline in 300 years, though final figures have not been released yet. What is a BN(O) passport, who in Hong Kong is eligible? Economists predict that Britain, which is also grappling with challenges related to Brexit, its departure from the European Union, will be one of the last countries to recover from the pandemic. While Britain may gain from the arrival of Hongkongers, experts warn that if a large enough number leaves, Hong Kong could be hit with not only a labour drain but also capital outflows that could deal a blow to its economy. Daisy Leung, counting down to her family’s departure, said Britain’s BN(O) offer presented a win-win situation for its stricken economy and Hongkongers keen to leave. “We’re helping each other,” she said. “The people moving to Britain should be financially sound and will be taking money abroad.” Boost for British economy London-based real estate executive Nick Yuen was surprised by a surge in inquiries from Hongkongers looking to buy or rent homes despite the pandemic and disastrous state of Britain’s economy. Foxtons, the property company he works for, received about 700 queries from Hongkongers last month alone, double the number just a few months ago. “Because of the political situation, we’re getting more Hong Kong buyers. In the past, it was always mainland Chinese buyers,” Yuen, who heads the firm’s China desk and deals with clients from Hong Kong and mainland China, said. Tears, fears, but a new life? Hong Kong early birds who have taken BN(O) path Yuen, the son of a mainland Chinese immigrant, said Hongkongers were mostly looking for properties in the range of £500,000 to £1 million. Despite the state of the economy, the average home price in Britain rose year on year by 7.5 per cent in November last year to a record £250,000. The increase was attributed to a combination of factors, including a stamp duty holiday exempting tax for properties priced under £500,000, as well as optimism that Hongkongers would be flocking there. Aside from London, Hongkongers have also been keen to buy homes in cities such as Birmingham and Manchester, which have sizeable Chinese communities. Prices are also lower outside London. Andy Sprowell, managing director of property firm BuyAssociation, said that in recent months, his Britain-based company sold more than 200 properties in both cities to Hongkongers. “Many people may have family or friends already living in and around those major cities, so they can get information and advice from them,” he said. According to the British government’s impact assessment study, the BN(O) visa scheme is expected to boost the economy by £2.4 billion to £2.9 billion over a five-year period, mostly from tax revenues. It also expected the scheme to bring in more businesses, including small and medium-sized enterprises. Professor Jonathan Portes, who specialises in economics and public policy at King’s College London, said Hongkongers could not be arriving at a better time, as Britain desperately needed a boost to its position as a global trading nation. The BN(O) scheme had the potential of “turning bad things into good things,” he said, and the dynamism and productivity Hongkongers would bring were important. “If this happens, it will bad for Hong Kong for people to leave their homes, but it will be good for the United Kingdom ... We need people to have connections, particularly in Asia, as part of post-Brexit and Covid-19 recovery,” he said. Professor Devyani Prabhat, a senior lecturer and specialist in migration at the University of Bristol’s law school, said that many professional and highly skilled residents from the European Economic Area had left Britain since Brexit. The Hong Kong arrivals, largely highly skilled and educated were considered good for Britain’s economy as potential workers as well as new consumers, she added. Tom Tugendhat, chair of the British parliament’s foreign affairs committee and a supporter of the BN(O) policies, said as much in an emailed response to the Post . “As an open and entrepreneurial economy, the UK would benefit from the drive and energy of Hongkongers and I’m sure they would create businesses, jobs, innovation and opportunity. That would add to our economy but more importantly to our whole society,” he said. ‘Exodus will hit Hong Kong’ But what will the impact be on Hong Kong, if hundreds of thousands of its people, if not more, choose to leave for Britain? In the years leading up to the return of Hong Kong from its British colonial master to China in 1997, about half a million Hongkongers were believed to have left the city, according to reports. Many had feared life under Chinese sovereignty but a smaller reverse wave also occurred later as some returned home to Hong Kong. They did so because the economies of some Western countries they were living in were struggling then, University of Hong Kong chair professor of population health Paul Yip Siu-fai said. “But this time, people are leaving not because they are worried about what may happen, as was the case before 1997. They are leaving now because they know what has happened” he said, referring to the political situation in Hong Kong under the national security law. Hong Kong will not be Hong Kong any more Paul Yip, HKU professor The labour drain on the city this time would be much more serious, he warned, because many of those leaving or making plans appeared to be in their 20s or 30s. The migration wave pre-1997 was made up mostly of the older generation who upped stakes, especially those who had fled mainland China in the 1950s and 1960s to free themselves from being under a communist regime. This time, even if the number of departing Hongkongers could be replaced by new arrivals from mainland China and elsewhere, Yip said: “Hong Kong will not be Hong Kong any more.” Dr Law Ka-chung, from City University’s economics and finance department, also pointed to the dangers of a potential labour drain, as high-calibre talent would find it easy to uproot and settle in Britain. Dr Natalie Wong Wai-man, a visiting fellow at CityU’s public policy department, said the previous wave of emigration had not had a lasting or serious impact on Hong Kong’s burgeoning economy. This time around, much would depend on the government’s economic policies, efforts to retain young talent, and whether mainland Chinese and foreigners would be coming in enough numbers to make up for any potential brain drain. Stay or leave? Quarrels, heartache as Hong Kong families torn over BN(O) ticket Vera Yuen, an economics lecturer at HKU’s business school, warned that a population decline could reduce labour supply and shrink demand for goods and services, hurting the economy. “Hong Kong is a knowledge-based economy, and professional services and financial services are pillars of the Hong Kong economy. These industries rely on highly educated and highly skilled labour. If many well-educated people leave, these sectors may be affected,” she said. And if a disproportionate number of younger people left, she added, the city’s demographic structure would be affected, bearing an adverse impact on the ageing of the population. Much would depend on the actual number who leave, she said, as well as the impact if they sold their property and took the proceeds with them. A Bank of America report earlier this month estimated that an exodus of Hongkongers could result in capital outflows of HK$280 billion this year alone, rising to HK$588 billion in five years. The study was based on estimates of people selling their homes in Hong Kong and withdrawing their pension savings to take to Britain. Former journalist Ray Wong*, for one, sold his Hong Kong Island flat recently for HK$5 million and intends to take the money with him when his family moves to Britain once the pandemic eases. The 36-year-old father of two said: “I have my worries and fears about moving there. I don’t think I’ll be able to get a journalism job in Britain, but I am fine about becoming an Uber driver.” ‘Immigrants with money’ Wong’s thoughts about starting life anew in an unfamiliar place echo a real concern of Hongkongers thinking of uprooting their families. Professor Xiang Biao, a migration expert at the University of Oxford, said Britain had seen successive waves of immigrants since the 1960s, including Indians and Pakistanis, and the newcomers were generally well received. But it was the 2004 influx of eastern Europeans seeking better lives that rattled Britain’s working classes, who began feeling that foreigners were stealing their jobs. That partly led to Brexit, Xiang said. He did not think that the arrival of Hongkongers would cause unhappiness, as the British believed this group would bring money into the country. They also regarded the BN(O) scheme as Britain demonstrating its commitment to democracy, he added. The fears of confronting racism especially during the pandemic era when ethnic Chinese people had been targeted were brushed aside by those keen to leave. Those from the pre-1997 wave of migrants though, said one had to learn to adapt. When you’re willing to work hard, there is a lot of work to do. There is lower-end work, from Chinese restaurants and takeaways, delivering food, washing dishes or being a waiter Stephen Ng, 68, former Hong Kong civil servant Former Hong Kong civil servant Stephen Ng Liu-nam, 68, recalled his early struggles after arriving in Britain alone about 30 years ago with his BN(O) passport. “I moved about 20 to 30 times in the first two years,” he said. The BN(O) passport did not give him a right to permanent residence, and it took a while for him to obtain a work visa. He worked as a travel agent and journalist, among other jobs, and eventually received his British passport. The bachelor, whose family is still in Hong Kong, now works for the Islington Chinese Association in London, helping new migrants from Hong Kong. “When you’re willing to work hard, there is a lot of work to do. There is lower-end work, from Chinese restaurants and takeaways, delivering food, washing dishes or being a waiter,” he said. “My generation is always living on the margins. In Hong Kong, we had to use English language, though my proficiency is in Chinese; but now in Britain, we have to use more English, my ‘Chineseness’ becomes a rarity. I hope the rest of my life in Britain will be spent assisting Hongkongers coming to settle and live their lives to the full.” Hong Kong-born Johnny Luk, an unsuccessful Conservative Party candidate in Britain’s 2019 parliamentary election, believes Hongkongers will have no problems settling as the country embraces diversity and there are many Chinese groups providing support. “In the UK, if you work hard, you will get somewhere,” he said. He was a month old when his parents left Hong Kong, moving first to the Netherlands and then Germany, before settling in Britain when he was about 10. Luk, 30, recalled having few Chinese schoolmates growing up. Even at university, there were not many and he had what he described as an identity crisis. “I had a big moment when I was in university, like, what am I? Am I British or not? A lot of people thought I was an international student,” he said. He gradually grew comfortable with realising who he was. “I am British Chinese, because you can be both. I am proud of my heritage and my roots in the UK,” he said. Whether those in the new wave of migration will eventually feel the same remains to be seen. Daisy Leung, the officer in a public institution who will be moving to Kent in a few months, said she was ready to become a yoga teacher or even work as a waitress. “I am willing to take up any job. I can work in a coffee shop,” she said. “Even if I can’t find a job to work in an office, I won’t just sit around and do nothing.” * Name changed at interviewee’s request. Additional reporting by Laura Westbrook Part one of the series looked at how some early bird Hongkongers have already left for Britain. Part two explored the struggles of some families torn over whether to leave.