According to the rail firm’s financial data, the fare per passenger is about HK$30 for the cross-border service and HK$90 for the high-speed rail.

In other words, the complete shutdown of its cross-border service will cost the company at least HK$350 million in revenue a month.

Francis Lun Sheung-nim, chief executive of Geo Securities, said he continued to have a dim view of the rail giant’s earning power this year, estimating it would lose at least HK$3 billion in ticket revenue this year.

“The MTR’s annual profit this year would be the worst since its merger with the Kowloon-Canton Railway Corporation (KCRC) in late 2007. I have no doubt about it. I will maintain my position to put a ‘sell’ rating on MTR stock,” he said.

Lun made the estimate as he believed the MTR would need to close down its cross-border service for at least six months for the virus outbreak to be kept completely under control.

“The cross-border service is the most profitable. Taking into account the loss of ridership for the East Rail Line and the Airport Express [thanks to a dramatic downturn in flights], it is estimated the MTR will lose HK$400 million a month by shutting down its cross-border service,” he said.

“To contain the coronavirus outbreak, I expect the cross-border service will be closed for six months. Let’s not forget that the rampaging protests will hit the subway stations from time to time. So my conservative estimate is that the MTR will lose at least HK$3 billion this year.”

Taking advantage of its rail monopoly, the company, in which the government owns a 75 per cent stake, has made for a lucrative business, with a net profit of almost or above HK$10 billion in each of the past five financial years since 2014.

However, the tides have turned, as it indicated a significant decline in profits last year, saying it would incur HK$1.6 billion in costs related to the anti-government protests, including spending HK$500 million to repair damaged facilities, incurring extra expenses to bolster security, and giving concessions to retail tenants.

Since August, the MTR Corp became a target of radical protesters, who accused it of bowing to Beijing and colluding with police. Radicals trashed rail stations and set facilities on fire, hurled petrol bombs at their entrances, spray-painted graffiti on walls, and hurled objects onto tracks.

Lawmaker Michael Tien Puk-sun, a former KCRC chairman, also expected the MTR to take a severe beating this year in terms of earnings, but remained positive about its long-term prospects, given the support it receives from the government.

“The closure of its cross-border service is just a one-off incident. The public will understand there’s a need for these measures,” he said. “Its income will be low this year, but its earning potential is big.”

Tien said he expected the government to grant MTR Corp development rights instead of operation rights on future rail projects, guaranteeing long-term profitability and steady growth for the rail giant.

“The MTR will not only be a rail operator, it will also be a developer with land granted by the government. This will generate huge profits for the MTR in the long run,” he said.

Jason Chan Wai-chung, head of research at uSMART Securities, was also hopeful for the rail giant, saying he believed the closure of the cross-border service would not last more than three months.

“Although the MTR will suffer some loss of income in the first half of this year. Business will pick up in the later half of the year. I don’t think its profits will slump too much,” he said.

The MTR’s monopoly of Hong Kong’s railway services, means demand would rebound after the coronavirus crisis was over, he said.

“No matter how bad the economy is, commuters still rely on its rail service as their main mode of transport. The slowdown in protests and its resumption of cross-border services will help restoring its profits,” he said.