Levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) are rising annually by around three per cent, placing earth on track for warming that could breach five degrees Celsius by 2100, a new study published on Sunday said.
The figure – among the most alarming of the latest forecasts by climate scientists – is at least double the two degrees target set by UN members struggling for a global deal on climate change.
Last year, global carbon emissions were 54 per cent above 1990 levels, according to the research, published in the journal by the Global Carbon Project consortium.
“We are on track for the highest emissions projections, which point to a rise in temperature of between four degrees and six degrees by the end of the century,” said Corinne le Quere, a carbon specialist at the University of East Anglia, eastern England.
“The estimate is based on growth trends that seem likely to last,” she said in a phone interview, pointing to the mounting consumption of coal by emerging giants.
Other research has warned of potentially catastrophic impacts from a temperature rise of this kind.
Chronic droughts and floods would bite into farm yields, violent storms and sea-level rise would swamp coastal cities and deltas, and many species would be wiped out, unable to cope with habitat loss.
