Ethnic minorities may swing British election's outcome

A radical demographic shift means that Britain's ethnic minority vote may determine the outcome of the 2015 election, according to research.

A study by the cross-party group Operation Black Vote found the number of seats where black and Asian voters could decide the outcome had rocketed by 70 per cent compared with the 2010 election.

The study suggests that in 168 marginal seats, the ethnic minority vote is bigger than the majority of the sitting MP. The seats extend beyond inner-city areas to include smaller regional cities and towns such as Southampton, Oxford, Sherwood, Ipswich and Northampton.

The findings will be of particular concern to the ruling Conservatives, who have acknowledged that they are struggling to capture the ethnic minority vote. Experts say the trend will continue and may change the dynamics of British politics.

Simon Woolley, of Operation Black Vote, said: "The black vote has never been so powerful. This research is a political game-changer - above all, if ethnic minority communities and politicians respond positively to it, democracy wins."

Liberal Democrat deputy leader Simon Hughes, whose party is in coalition with the Tories, said: "Unless all parties and candidates engage with and seek to win BME [black and minority ethnic] support, they could be in political difficulty locally and see their general election prospects significantly set back."

According to one new estimate, the change in Britain's ethnic make-up may be enough to cost David Cameron the next election. The Conservatives' race deficit will cost them between 20 and 40 seats in 2015, according to Professor Anthony Heath, of Oxford University.