Russian Bear plays the waiting game on Ukraine
The Russian president faces a stark choice - negotiate with new leaders or enter the fray and unleash forces that could rip the country apart
With a successful Olympics behind him, President Vladimir Putin is facing what may become the most dramatic challenge of his rule: how to respond to the turmoil in Ukraine, a country he has declared vital to Russia's interests, with a major Russian naval base, and home to millions of Russian-speakers.
Some in Ukraine's Russian-speaking east and south have begged the Kremlin to help protect them against what they fear could be violence by the protesters who toppled Ukraine's Moscow-backed leader.
If clashes occur in the Crimea … Russia couldn’t ignore it. There are all kinds of risks
Putin refrained from taking a public stance on Ukraine amid the Sochi Games, but the mounting tensions could quickly leave him with a stark choice: stick to diplomacy and risk losing face at home, or open a Pandora's box by entering the fray.
Moscow could choose to openly back separatist-minded groups in Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula that hosts the base for Russia's Black Sea Fleet, further splitting Ukraine. Ignoring pleas for help from pro-Russian groups in Ukraine could shatter Putin's carefully manicured image of the tough ruler eager to confront the West, encouraging his foes back home.
His premier, Dmitry Medvedev, on Monday unleashed scorn on the new Ukrainian authorities who replaced President Viktor Yanukovych and questioned their legitimacy. But he wouldn't say what action Russia might take to protect its interests.
"If you consider Kalashnikov-toting people in black masks who are roaming Kiev to be the government, then it will be hard for us to work with that government," Medvedev said.