Global warming has doubled risk of harsh winters in Eurasia
Melting of Arctic ice cap and changing winds send colder air southward
The risk of severe winters in Europe and northern Asia has been doubled by global warming, according to new research. The counter-intuitive finding is the result of climate change melting the Arctic ice cap and causing wind patterns that push freezing air and snow southwards.
The new research, published in , shows that the increased risk of icy winters will persist for the next few decades. The Arctic is expected to be ice-free in late summer by the 2030s, halting the changes to wind patterns, while climate change will continue to increase average temperatures. Dr Colin Summerhayes, at the Scott Polar Research Institute in Cambridge, UK, said: "This counter-intuitive effect of the global warming that led to the sea ice decline in the first place makes some people think that global warming has stopped. It has not. Although average surface warming has been slower since 2000, the Arctic has gone on warming rapidly throughout this time."
The melting of sea ice warms the air above and weakens the high-level winds called the polar vortex. This causes meanders in the jet stream to become stuck in place. This blocking pattern pulls freezing air southwards out of the Arctic and, because it is stuck, the resulting severe weather can last for long periods. Climate scientists have warned for many years that global warming is not simply leading to a slow, gradual rise in temperature. Instead, it is putting more energy into the climate system, which drives more frequent extreme events.
Deadly heat waves in Europe and Australia have already been shown to be many times more likely because of global warming, while some floods were made twice as likely by climate change as long ago as 2000.
Annual average global temperatures continue to rise, but the distribution of temperature through the year is giving us more extremes, which is highly damaging to food production, says Professor Peter Wadhams at the University of Cambridge. "As ice continues to retreat, we can expect these weather extremes to continue to occur," he added.
