Poland’s president stunned as exit poll puts nationalist Duda ahead in first round of voting

Polish President Bronislaw Komorowski is facing a tough battle for re-election, after exit polling predicted a shock loss in the first round of voting.

Nationalist opposition candidate Andrzej Duda made a surprisingly strong showing in Sunday’s vote, apparently forcing a runoff with Komorowski.

Duda, who is no fan of the European Union, was predicted to receive 34.5 percent of the vote to Komorowski’s 33.1 percent, according to the IPSOS exit poll released by the private TVN24 and the state-run PAP news agency.

The poll results suggest rising dissatisfaction with the ruling pro-EU establishment led by the center-right and pro-business Civic Platform party, which has been in power since 2007. Komorowski was a member but left in order to be a non-aligned president. The dissatisfaction was also reflected in the unexpectedly high support — 20.5 percent of the vote — predicted for punk rock star Pawel Kukiz, an anti-establishment candidate critical of the government.

Official results could be announced late Monday, the State Electoral Commission said.

The results mean that Komorowski is in “gigantic trouble and must fight very hard to survive” in the May 24 runoff, said political analyst Antoni Dudek.