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Agence France-Presse

Saudi Arabia hopes to bring Russia into the fold of an expanded club of global oil giants to sustain a stable market, leaving Opec’s role in question, analysts say.
The new union, spearheaded by Riyadh and Moscow, is expected to be larger than the 14-member Opec oil cartel, which has dominated the global energy market for the past six decades.
But experts say an expanded group that includes Russia means Opec’s sway in global oil is fading, if not all but “dead”.
In January, Opec kingpin Saudi Arabia floated the idea of extending a cooperation agreement struck in late 2016 by 24 Opec and non-Opec producers to trim output and shore up prices.
Top Saudi officials, including Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, and Energy Minister Khaled al-Faleh, have called for a long-term cooperation framework between oil producers.
The idea received strong support from several Opec members, mainly the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait.
A Kremlin spokesman said last month that Russia and Saudi Arabia have been discussing a “wide range of options” on cooperation in the global oil market.
The two largest suppliers of conventional oil in the world – Saudi and Russia – can work together to maintain stable prices or fight each other by increasing production ... but at the same time kill themselves
Jean-Francois Seznec, an oil expert at US Johns Hopkins University
Opec and non-Opec countries will meet in Saudi Arabia’s Jeddah on Friday to assess compliance with production cuts and to discuss potential long-term cooperation.
Producers have already been encouraged by the success of their broadened cooperation, which helped restore balance to the crude market, rebounding prices from as low as US$26 a barrel to above US$70 a barrel.
Opec secretary general Mohammed Barkindo on Monday praised the cooperation agreement as a “great success” that has helped to overcome “the worst cycle in the history of oil”.
Kuwaiti oil expert Kamel al-Harami said “it would have been difficult to achieve that success by Opec alone”.
He said that at its root, the new agreement “basically looks like a Saudi-Russian alliance”.
The deal, which cut output by 1.8 million barrels per day, has removed more than 300 million barrels of surplus oil and lowered extra crude stockpiles to just 50 million barrels.
Oil Minister of non-Opec Oman, Mohammed al-Rumhi, told an oil conference in Kuwait on Monday that the secret of the deal’s success was compliance with production cuts.
But he warned that “the game is not over yet,” calling on producers to continue cooperating to maintain market conditions.
“The two largest suppliers of conventional oil in the world – Saudi and Russia – can work together to maintain stable prices or fight each other by increasing production to kill the market for shale oil producers, but at the same time kill themselves,” said Jean-Francois Seznec, an oil expert at US Johns Hopkins University.
“The only logical and smart approach is to keep prices stable,” he told Agence France-Presse.
Oil prices collapsed in mid-2014 because oil producers, mainly Saudi Arabia, refused to cut production to maintain market shares against tough competition from US shale oil – eventually resulting in a massive oil surplus.
The Saudis later reversed course, cutting deeper than their required quota to ensure the deal’s success.
Barkindo described the Saudi-Russia alliance as a “new chapter” in the oil industry’s history.
In the coming months, producers will look “to institutionalise this long-term framework” with inclusive and broad-based participation, he said.
UAE Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei said last month that a “draft charter” for the new alliance would be finalised by the end of 2018 when the current agreement expires.
Faleh, Saudi’s energy minister, said the partnership with Russia would last for “decades and generations”.
He said he hoped it would send a message that the kingdom is looking to expand its partnerships beyond Opec, founded in 1960.
Analysts believe the new alliance will, at the least, weaken Opec’s role in global oil.
“Opec lost some of its shine after Russia joined the cooperation agreement … It was a simple message that it could not do the job alone,” said Harami.
Seznec, from Johns Hopkins University, said “Opec is de facto dead”, but still useful because it gave Saudi Arabia a forum to exchange with minor producers.
Anas al-Hajji, a Houston-based oil expert, said the new alliance would likely dominate the global oil market.
“Opec as a club for oil producers and a research centre will not end, but the question is about the centre of (oil) power: It is about Saudi Arabia and Russia,” Hajji told said.


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Saudi-Russia alliance could spell doom for Opec, cartel that has ruled oil industry since 1960

A man fixes a sign with Opec's logo next to its headquarters' entrance before a meeting of OPEC oil ministers in Vienna, Austria, on November 29, 2017. Photo: Reuters

FILE PHOTO: Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih and Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak attend a news conference at the Ritz-Carlton hotel in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia February 14, 2018./File Photo

Oil prices soar as OPEC finalises output cut deal

The logo of OPEC is pictured at the OPEC headquarters on the eve of the 171th meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries in Vienna, on November 29, 2016. / AFP PHOTO / JOE KLAMAR

Khalid Al-Falih, Saudi Arabia's energy and industry minister, speaks to a member of his delegation ahead of the 171st Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) meeting in Vienna, Austria, on Wednesday, Nov. 30, 2016. After weeks of often tense negotiations, OPEC ministers gathering in Vienna expressed renewed optimism about salvaging a deal to cut oil production and prop up global prices. Photographer: Akos Stiller/Bloomberg

Mohammed Al-Sada, Qatar's minister of energy and industry and president of OPEC, speaks during a news conference following the 171st Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) meeting in Vienna, Austria. Photo: Bloomberg

Putin optimistic about OPEC deal;  Russia ready to freeze oil output

epa05641099 A handout photograph made available on 21 November 2016 by Apec Peru 2016 showing US President Barack Obama (R) and Russian President Vladimir Putin (2-L) during a ssession of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit in Lima, Peru, 20 November 2016. EPA/GIANCARLO SHIBAYAMA / APEC PERU 2016 / HANDOUT HANDOUT EDITORIAL USE ONLY/NO SALES

A gas flare on an oil production platform in the Soroush oil fields is seen alongside an Iranian flag in the Persian Gulf, Iran, July 25, 2005. REUTERS/Raheb Homavandi/File Photo

A worker checks the valves at Al-Sheiba oil refinery in the city of Basra, Iraq. Photo: Reuters

Russia ready to join OPEC effort to limit oil supply: Putin

An Indian fuel station attendant serves a customer at a petrol pump at Sevok Bazar, some 24km from Siliguri, on September 29, 2016. Oil prices surged after the OPEC producers' group surprised the market with a deal to slash output. At the end of six hours of negotiations and weeks of horse trading, OPEC announced the plan to cut production to a level of 32.5-33 million barrels per day (bpd) from 33.47 billion, bpd in August, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said. / AFP PHOTO / DIPTENDU DUTTA

A worker checks the valve of an oil pipe at an oil field owned by Russian state-owned oil producer Bashneft near the village of Nikolo-Berezovka, northwest of Ufa, Bashkortostan, Russia January 28, 2015. REUTERS/Sergei Karpukhin/File Photo

Russian President Vladimir Putin delivers a speech during the World Energy Congress in Istanbul, Turkey. Photo: Xinhua