A tsunami of plastic waste is about to be unleashed on the world, because China will no longer be the West’s rubbish dump

A tidal wave of plastic trash will flood the world over the next decade, a new study says, and warnings are already blaring like sirens.

In the wake of China’s decision to stop importing nearly half of the world’s scrap starting January 1, particularly from the wealthiest nations, waste management operations across the US are struggling to process heavy volumes of paper and plastic that they can no longer unload on the Chinese. States such as Massachusetts and Oregon are lifting restrictions against pouring recyclable material into landfills to grant the operations some relief.

If Europe and the rest of the world struggle like the United States, according to the study by researchers at the University of Georgia released on Wednesday, an estimated 111 million tonnes of plastic waste will pile up by 2030. Based on the amount of domestic scrap exported to China, the researchers estimate that the United States alone will have to contend with 37 million tonnes of extra waste, an amount it’s not prepared to handle.

The more immediate and noticeable change for most Americans, both conservationists and waste management operators said, will be in their homes. As recycling programmes change or even disappear, residents will face new questions about what material can be recycled and what cannot.

“It will impact recycling programmes across the country,” said Ben Harvey, owner and president of E.L. Harvey & Sons Recycling Services in Westborough, Massachusetts. “If there’s no place for this stuff to go, what’s the sense of collecting it? We’re going to look at the programmes and say why are we collecting it, it’s not a commodity any more. It’s a big thing. It’s a scary thing.”