Scientists find the formula for box-office cinematic success. Producers of ‘Asura’, please take note

A team of UK scientists believe they have found the formula for box-office success.

After analysing data from 6,147 movie scripts and filtering it through a series of algorithms, the researchers have identified the emotional arc that makes the most money, called the “man in a hole” arc.

It could be gamechanging for both film producers and audiences, said Ganna Pogrebna, a professor of behavioural economics and data science at the University of Birmingham, who led the research team. And the findings may provide some salutary reading for producers of box-office bombs like China’s Asura, recently yanked from cinemas after just three days, earning a paltry 49.05 million yuan in receipts during the opening weekend.

“We know that when we talk about movie production it is a small group of people that make decisions for the viewers. We were essentially trying to listen to the viewer, to see what they actually want.”

The scientists categorised the movies according to six emotional profiles or clusters, which were previously applied to novels.

These are: rags to riches – an ongoing emotional rise as seen in films such as The Shawshank Redemption; riches to rags – an ongoing emotional fall (Psycho); man in a hole – a fall followed by a rise (The Godfather); Icarus – a rise followed by a fall (On the Waterfront); Cinderella – a rise followed by a fall followed by a rise (Babe); and Oedipus, a fall followed by a rise followed by a fall (All About My Mother).

They were able to then map the clusters that were most successful at the box office across 21 genres.