Thought 2018 was hot? Prepare for record-breaking temperatures in the next five years

While 2018 was the fourth-warmest year on record, British meteorologists are predicting the next five years will be much hotter, maybe even record-breaking. Two US agencies, the United Kingdom Met Office and the World Meteorological Organisation analysed global temperatures in slightly different ways, but each came to the same conclusion Wednesday: 2018 was the fourth-warmest year on record behind 2016, 2015 and 2017. 2016, boosted by a strong El Nino that normally tips the mercury northwards, remains the hottest year on record. The 20 warmest years in history all occurred within the last 22 years. “The long-term temperature trend is far more important than the ranking of individual years, and that trend is an upward one,” said WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas. “The degree of warming during the past four years has been exceptional, both on land and in the ocean.” The WMO said heightened temperatures also contributed to a number of extreme weather events such as hurricanes, droughts and flash flooding. “Many of the extreme weather events are consistent with what we expect from a changing climate. This is the reality we need to face up to,” Taalas said. The UN body also said that 2019 had picked up where 2018 left off, with Australia experiencing its warmest January on record. It warned that intense heatwaves “are becoming more frequent as a result of climate change.” How long do we really have to save the planet from global warming? Similar reports on climate trends released by the US space agency Nasa and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) confirmed that last year was the fourth warmest in modern times. Sea ice cover in the Arctic and Antarctic both marked the second lowest ever observed. Meanwhile, there were 14 weather-related disasters costing one billion dollars or more. “The 14 events, in total, claimed at least 247 lives and cost US$91 billion,” NOAA said in a statement. “About US$73 billion of this total was attributable to three events: Hurricanes Michael (US$25 billion) and Florence (US$24 billion), and the complex of western wildfires (US$24 billion).” Australian towns reach nearly 50 degrees Celsius as heatwave worsens As parts of the Midwestern United States were gripped by a “polar vortex” last week that saw temperatures plunge to lows of -53 degrees Celsius (-64 Fahrenheit), US President Donald Trump suggested that the cold weather front cast doubt over the veracity of climate change data. “What the hell is going on with Global Waming? (sic) Please come back fast, we need you!” he said on Twitter. In the beautiful Midwest, windchill temperatures are reaching minus 60 degrees, the coldest ever recorded. In coming days, expected to get even colder. People can’t last outside even for minutes. What the hell is going on with Global Waming? Please come back fast, we need you! — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 29, 2019 Taalas said that the deadly cold snap was entirely consistent with the effects of man made climate change, including the warming of the poles. “A part of the cold anomalies at lower latitudes could be linked to dramatic changes in the Arctic,” he said. “What happens at the poles does not stay at the poles but influences weather and climate conditions in lower latitudes where hundreds of millions of people live.” As much of world continues to rely on fossil fuels, greenhouse gases will keep mounting, trapping heat in the atmosphere. Using computer simulations, the British weather office forecast that the next five years will average somewhere between 14.73 -15.27 degrees. That would be warmer than the last four years. 2018 record for ocean temperatures “Over the next five years the high temperatures seen recently are likely to be sustained and that further warming may well occur, perhaps reaching new record levels for annual average temperatures,” Rowan Sutton, director of science for the National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS) in the UK, said. Brian Hoskins, chair of the Grantham Institute at Imperial College London, agreed. “Our lack of decisive action over climate change makes us like a climber ascending a mountain, knowing that there will not be enough oxygen at some height, yet still we go on,” he said. “Not every individual step takes us nearer disaster, but as confirmed by the Met Office, our general direction is clear.” Additional reporting by Associated Press