Isis still a threat after Trump declared its leader Baghdadi ‘died like a dog’ and his followers were ‘frightened puppies’
- The extremist group has ambitions to rebuild, and it remains a dangerous threat in Iraq, Afghanistan and beyond
Islamic State (Isis) had already become a more scattered movement before Baghdadi’s death during a raid by US special forces soldiers. It had lost most of the land it once held in Iraq and Syria as a result of a multi-year US-led campaign. Its soldiers were locked up in jails, watched by Kurdish guards.
But while Baghdadi’s guidance had allowed Isis to maintain a sense of central command – and his claims to a God-given right to rule will make it difficult to replace him – it’s premature to say Isis is a spent force. That’s especially true in other parts of the world where it has continued to carry out attacks.
“The successor will be someone suited to their current needs: a military leader with a jihadist pedigree who can signal a strong transition,” said Amarnath Amarasingam, assistant professor at Queens University and fellow at the Institute for Strategic Dialogue in London.
Baghdadi’s death could become a rallying cry for his supporters to show the US and others that it remains a force to be reckoned with. The question is whether there is capacity still for large-scale reprisals.
“We may see a small uptick in attacks, but that is to be expected and should not be confused with strength,” Amarasingam said.