Nearly 5 million fewer girls to be born worldwide over next 10 years: study
- Increased sex selection in certain countries will lead to surplus of young men
- This could cause more antisocial behaviour, violence and ‘marriage squeeze’
An estimated 4.7 million fewer girls were expected to be born globally in the next 10 years because of sex-selective practices in countries with a cultural preference for male offspring, a trend that could undermine social cohesion in the long term, research showed.
The research suggested that the projected shortfall in the number of girls being born will lead to a surplus of young men in around a third of the global population by 2030, which could lead to increased antisocial behaviour and violence.
Sex-selective abortions have been on the rise for the past 40 years in countries throughout southeast Europe along with south and east Asia, with as-yet undetermined demographic impacts.
To model what short and long-term effect sex selection will have on societies, an international team of researchers analysed data from more than three billion births over the last 50 years.
Focusing on 12 countries where the male-to-female ratio had increased since 1970 and another 17 where that ratio was at risk of increasing due to social or cultural trends, they simulated two scenarios.
The first assumed an increase in the rate of sex selection, based on statistical evidence.
The second scenario assumed increased sex selection in certain countries, based on observed trends and decreased fertility, but for which specific data were lacking.