Inflation and war are stoking civil unrest across the world, research shows
- The world is bound for more disruption and unrest in the next six months, an intelligence firm said
- Its analysis said the risk of civil unrest has increased in 101 of the 198 countries it tracked
The risk of civil unrest has spiked across the globe as developed nations and emerging markets alike grapple with spiralling inflation and upheaval exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, according to a report.
Of 198 countries tracked in the Civil Unrest Index, 101 showed mounting risk in the third quarter of 2022, according to research collected by intelligence firm Verisk Maplecroft. That’s the biggest increase since the ranking was developed in 2016, it showed.
The potential for unrest is rising across Europe, which is bracing for a long winter of energy disruption because of the war in Ukraine – as well as the developing world, where price spikes on basic staples have triggered concern of a global food crisis. The threat is set to grow over the coming months, researchers say.
Particularly in developed nations, civil unrest could take the form of demonstrations and labour strikes with the potential to tear at nations’ social fabric.
“These are significant events in terms of disrupting every day life,” Jimena Blanco, chief analyst for Verisk Maplecroft, said in an interview. In emerging markets, worst-case scenarios may involve “rioting, looting, even attempts to overthrow the government,” she said.
Global inflation is likely to linger for months, with no prospect of returning to levels before the twin shocks of the Covid-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine – even if consumer-price inflation is set to ease somewhat in the second half.