Alone among food staples, rice might survive better in a warming world

In a warming world that has been affecting farming yields, one crop may be better positioned than others.

New research looking at future production of six staple crops including wheat, soybeans and sorghum found that rice alone should have the smallest decline in global yields. The results present a sobering picture of how climate change may affect the global food system while also suggesting that there were actions farmers could take to offset some of the losses.

“Rice is more adaptable, so it’s more protected,” said Andy Hultgren, the lead author of the new Nature study and an assistant professor at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign. “It’s a combination of the characteristics of the crop and then the actions that farmers can take to take advantage.”

Extreme heat in particular can take a toll on crop yields, especially high daytime temperatures.

Nights will get warmer too, which could adversely impact crops like corn. But it was projected to also create conditions under which some rice varietals thrive more than the other crops, especially in the very wet climates in South and Southeast Asia where it was typically grown.

Though some other studies have found that hotter nights can decrease rice yields, the effect depends on the rice varietal and how wet or dry local conditions are, Hultgren said. “In really wet conditions, higher minimum temperatures are helpful, particularly if it’s very wet and you’re in a relatively higher income portion of the global income distribution.”