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Agence France-Presse

The warming El Nino weather phenomenon could form later this year, potentially pushing global temperatures to record heights.
There is a 50-60 per cent chance of El Nino developing during the July-September period and beyond, according to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
The World Meteorological Organization will issue an update on El Nino on Tuesday.
Here’s what you need to know about El Nino and its cooler sister, La Nina.
Why the name?
El Nino and La Nina are two phases of a natural climate pattern across the tropical Pacific known as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
Peruvian and Ecuadorian fishermen coined the term El Nino (“the boy” or “the Christ Child”) in the 19th century for the arrival of an unusually warm ocean current off the coast that reduced their catch just before Christmas.
Scientists chose the name La Nina as the opposite of El Nino. Between the two events, there is a “neutral” phase.
El Nino
El Nino can weaken consistent trade winds that blow east to west across the tropical Pacific, influencing weather by affecting the movement of warm water across this vast ocean.

This weakening warms the usually cooler central and eastern sides of the ocean, altering rainfall over the equatorial Pacific and wind patterns around the world.
The extra heat at the surface of the Pacific releases energy into the atmosphere that can temporarily drive up global temperatures, which is why El Nino years are often among the warmest on record.
“All else being equal, a typical El Nino event tends to cause a temporary increase in the global mean temperature on the order of 0.1 degrees Celsius to 0.2 degrees Celsius,” said Nat Johnson, an NOAA meteorologist.
El Nino occurs every two to seven years.
It typically results in drier conditions across Southeast Asia, Australia, southern Africa and northern Brazil, and wetter conditions in the Horn of Africa, the southern United States, Peru and Ecuador.
Another record?
The last El Nino occurred in 2023-2024, contributing to making 2023 the second highest year on record and 2024 the all-time high.
Carlo Buontempo, director of the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, said in January that 2026 could be “another record-breaking year” if El Nino appears this year.

However, El Nino’s impact would be higher in 2027 than in 2026 if it develops in the second half of this year, said Tido Semmler, a climate scientist at Ireland’s National Meteorological Service.
“It takes time for the global atmosphere to react to the El Nino,” he said.
“Having said this, there is a risk of 2026 being the warmest year on record even without El Nino, due to the global warming trend,” Semmler told AFP.
“2027 would face an increased risk of getting a record warm year if El Nino developed in the second half of 2026,” he added.
La Nina
The latest La Nina episode was relatively weak and short-lived, starting in December 2024 and due to enter a neutral phase during the February-April period.
La Nina cools the eastern Pacific Ocean for a period of about one to three years, generating the opposite effects to El Nino on global weather.
It leads to wetter conditions in parts of Australia, Southeast Asia, India, southeast Africa and northern Brazil, while causing drier conditions in parts of South America.
La Nina did not stop 2025 from being the third hottest on record.
The NOAA adopted in February a new way of determining El Nino and El Nino events.


The old Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) compared the three-month average sea surface temperature in one region of the Pacific with a 30-year average in the same area.
But as the oceans have been warming rapidly, that old 30-year average can be out of date.
The new method, the Relative Oceanic Nino Index (RONI), compares how warm or cool the east-central Pacific is compared to the rest of the tropics.
The NOAA said RONI is a “clearer, more reliable way” to track El Nino and La Nina in real time.


El Nino may return in 2026, making the planet even hotter

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Heavy flooding in Indonesian resort island of Bali prompts tourist evacuations

Extreme weather

A waste picker drinks water while working at a rubbish dump on the outskirts of Jammu, India, during a heatwave in 2024. Photo: AP

A wildfire burns in California in the US in 2022. Photo: AP

Cracked soil in a dry paddy field in Malaysia. Photo: Shutterstock

El Nino could cost Hong Kong US$300 billion and shorten life expectancy: study

A study has found that Hongkongers born during the two strong El Nino events in 1982-83 and 1997-98 could have their life expectancy reduced by five to seven months. Photo: Jelly Tse

Researchers estimate life expectancy losses of 0.5 years for the 1982-83 El Nino and 0.4 years for the 1997-98 event. Photo: Jelly Tse

Trump flouts science to revoke landmark US climate finding, calling it ‘giant scam’

The US repeal eliminates all greenhouse gas emissions standards for cars and trucks. Photo: TNS

US President Donald Trump on Thursday. Photo: EPA

Caribbean island wins climate case against Netherlands forcing Dutch action on rising seas

A mangrove on the Dutch Caribbean island of Bonaire. Photo: AFP

Aerial view of floodwaters covering land on Bonaire, on January 24. Photo: AFP

Car tyres are piled in a landfill on Bonaire on January 24. Photo: AFP

Asia’s year of costly climate disasters spurs calls for ‘decisive action’

A commuter wades through floodwaters from Cyclone Ditwah in Chennai on December 2. Flooding in India and Pakistan has killed over 1,860 people and caused up to US$6 billion in damages in 2025, according to a new report. Photo: AFP

A woman walks along a mud-covered street in the aftermath of Typhoon Kalmaegi in Liloan, in the province of Cebu on November 6. The Philippines sustained damage of more than US$5 billion from typhoons. Photo: AFP

People watch firefighting activity on a section of the Hughes wildfire near Santa Clarita, California, in January. Wildfires in the US state caused US$60 billion in damage and the deaths of more than 400 people. Photo: EPA-EFE

A person walks along the edge of uncultivated farmland, where dry soil stretches across fields left unplanted due to water shortages, in Najaf, Iraq, in November. Photo: Reuters

Indonesian fishermen’s climate lawsuit in Switzerland against cement giant to proceed

Edi Mulyono and Asmania, two of four plaintiffs who have filed a lawsuit against cement company Holcim for its role in climate change, stand in front of Holcim’s Eclepens cement plant in 2023. Photo: Lorenz Kumme/HEKS/EPER


 An aerial view of Pari Island, Jakarta, in June. Photo: Rosa Panggabean/HEKS/EPER

(Left to right) Edi Mulyono, Asmania, Mustaghfirin and Arif Pujiyanto, the four plaintiffs who have filed a lawsuit against cement company Holcim for its role in climate change, at Pari Island, Jakarta in June. Photo: HEKS/EPER

Flooding at Star Beach on the south side of Pari Island, Jakarta, occurs frequently. Photo: Walhi/HEKS/EPER

Asmania, one of four plaintiffs who have filed a lawsuit against cement company Holcim for its role in climate change, shows her only pond that still has fish near Pari Island, Jakarta in June. Photo: Rosa Panggabean/HEKS/EPER

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However, scientists say there’s a risk of 2026 being ‘the warmest year on record even without El Nino, due to the global warming trend’


However, scientists say there’s a risk of 2026 being ‘the warmest year on record even without El Nino, due to the global warming trend’.


El Nino may return in 2026, making the planet even hotter

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}However, scientists say there’s a risk of 2026 being ‘the warmest year on record even without El Nino, due to the global warming trend’

Why the name?

However, scientists say there’s a risk of 2026 being ‘the warmest year on record even without El Nino, due to the global warming trend’