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Analysis | Row with Turkey threatens to upend Dutch vote, playing into hands of far-right’s Wilders

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Geert Wilders (left) of the Dutch PVV Party meets with members of the public in Valkenburg, The Netherlands, on Saturday. Photo: EPA

With campaigning in the crucial Dutch elections reaching fever pitch, and the far-right poised to make huge gains, analysis of the race has been upended by a diplomatic row with Turkey.

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As politicians criss-crossed the country ahead of Wednesday’s vote, Turkish and Dutch leaders traded accusations and ties sank to new lows after The Netherlands banned Turkish ministers from a pro-Ankara rally in Rotterdam.

Political analysts said the international incident could benefit both Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s Liberals and the anti-Islam Freedom Party (PVV) of populist Geert Wilders. But the upshot may be to re-energise Wilders’s campaign just as it appeared to be fading.

“The cabinet has shown political decisiveness,” said Kees Aarts, professor of political institutions and behaviour at the University of Groningen. “But when you add everything up, what happened will clearly help Wilders ... it’s his main theme that’s at stake now.”

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Geert Wilders carries election leaflets while campaigning in Valkenburg, Netherlands, on Saturday. Photo: Bloomberg
Geert Wilders carries election leaflets while campaigning in Valkenburg, Netherlands, on Saturday. Photo: Bloomberg
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