French election could bring a jolt to Western security, no matter who wins
Presidential candidates have different defence policies but most have far-reaching consequences for either Nato, Russia or the US
Of the four candidates with a realistic chance to become France’s next president, three oppose Western sanctions against Russia.
Two would take France out of Nato’s military command, or perhaps remove it from the alliance altogether.
And the one candidate who fits neither category would dramatically increase European defence cooperation to lessen dependence on what he regards as an unreliable US.
When French voters make their choices Sunday in the first round of the country’s utterly unpredictable presidential race, the status quo for Western security won’t be on the ballot. Instead the election could become yet another convulsive moment for a decades-old international security order that is still wobbling from the turbulence of President Trump.
In the run-up to the vote, attention both inside and outside France has focused on the political and economic consequences of a potential Frexit from the European Union or the euro currency. With the killing of a Paris police officer Thursday night in an attack claimed by the Islamic State, proposals to close borders and aggressively crack down on domestic security threats are also at the centre of debate. But the election’s impact on Nato and other elements of Western defence could be equally profound.
