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Could complicated new law confuse Italian election result?

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Italy’s former prime minister and leader of Forza Italia party Silvio Berlusconi. Photo: EPA
Agence France-Presse

Italy on Sunday will vote for the first time under a new electoral law which has made the result difficult to predict and increased the chances of no party winning an overall majority.

The election looks like a three-way race between a right-wing coalition led by former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi, the anti-establishment Five Star Movement and the centre-left Democratic Party.

The final polls issued before a campaign ban came into force last month put billionaire Berlusconi’s coalition in front, with 37 per cent.

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Former prime minister and head of the centre-left Democratic Party Matteo Renzi at a rally. Photo: AFP
Former prime minister and head of the centre-left Democratic Party Matteo Renzi at a rally. Photo: AFP

But they also predicted that the bloc would fall short of the majority required to form a government.

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Under the complex electoral law introduced last year, one third of seats in parliament will be attributed on a first-past-the-post basis while the remaining two-thirds are divided up by proportional representation.

The new law favours coalitions and limits the chances of the populist Five Star Movement (M5S), which has ruled out any post-election deal with other parties, but it has made it difficult to predict the margins needed to take power.

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