Following the illiberal model embraced by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, ruling-party leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski has promised to use a second term to complete measures to gain more sway over the judiciary and to “re-Polonise” major industries and the country’s still largely independent media. He declared victory, although he signalled disappointment after the party did not win as much support as it did in European Parliament elections in May.

“We attained a lot, but we deserve more,” Kaczynski told cheering supporters after the exit poll was released. “Poland needs to continue its change, needs to change for the better. We face four more years of hard work.”

With partial results set to trickle in during the late evening and Monday, and the exit poll showed Law and Justice taking 239 of parliament’s 460 seats. Turnout was 61.1 per cent, the highest for a general election since the 1989 fall of communism. Final results are expected to be published by Tuesday.

Law and Justice’s dominance may look like yet another clash in an EU member between forces allied to the bloc’s mainstream and the nationalist forces who are flouting its norms on the rule of law. But the party is adored by many of the country’s 38 million people, particularly in rust-belt regions like those in the US and Britain that helped elect President Donald Trump and voted to leave the EU.

Exit poll: Polish populists make some gains in local votes

With industries including manufacturing and coal mining drying up, and more than 2 million Poles have heading for better paying jobs in western Europe. Many who remain are fed up and fell left behind in a transition from communist to market economy that split society between haves and have nots.

Kaczynski, who is the force behind the government despite holding no official position other than lawmaker and party chief, boosted pensions and introduced a 500 zloty (US$128) a month child subsidy that helped pull those left behind by decades of transformation above the poverty line.

“This is a confirmation of a strong support for Law & Justice and their agenda, especially their social program,” said Piotr Matys, a strategist at Rabobank. “Investors know very well what to expect from Law & Justice after four years of rule, with the agenda focused on raising the living standard of Poles.”

The approach has helped keep annual economic growth at near 5 per cent since 2017, while the government has bought out foreign banks and utilities and encouraged the creation of “national champion” businesses. It now plans to nearly double the minimum wage, a huge draw in a country where living standards are now just over 70 per cent of the EU average.

At the same time, Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, who has vowed to “re-Christianise Europe,” has declared the ballot Poland’s most important since the fall of communism three decades ago because it will determine whether the sweeping overhauls of the past four years take hold.

While it has transformed Poland, it has also alienated younger voters by demonising the LGTBQ community and clashing with the European Commission, which has repeatedly sued Warsaw over violating the rule of law.

Still, Law and Justice will not enjoy the unhindered power of Orban in Hungary, as it will not be able to overturn vetoes from the president, with an election for that post due next May. Another consolation for the opposition could be races for the Senate: if they manage to take control they may be able to slow, but not stop Law and Justice from pushing through its legislative program.

“The results in the Senate race are still ahead of us,” said Civic Coalition leader Grzegorz Schetyna. “I believe we can win it.”