Advertisement
Advertisement
Boris Johnson
Get more with myNEWS
A personalised news feed of stories that matter to you
Learn more
Britain’s Prime Minister Boris Johnson has been given a clear mandate since his election victory. Photo: AFP

After Brexit, can Boris Johnson make Britain greater?

  • With a decisive election victory under his belt, Boris Johnson has a mandate to push his own brand of UK foreign policy

With the election decisively won, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s in-tray of promises on which he now needs to deliver is overflowing, the divisive Brexit issue his top priority.

But with a huge majority in parliament, he now has a mandate to push his withdrawal plan through the House of Commons, possibly as early as Friday, to “get Brexit done” by January 31.

What comes next, the detailed negotiations of the future UK trading relationship with the European Union, its nearest and largest trading partner, may prove a little trickier.

Johnson has imposed a deadline of the end of 2020, but already there are suggestions from senior figures in Brussels they might ask for an extension, meaning that the wrangling is far from over.

As Financial Times commentator Gideon Rachman put it: “He must turn the negotiation of a new trade deal with the EU, however protracted, into a boring, bureaucratic process that mostly stays out of the headlines. That will help suck some of the poison out of Britain’s political system and its relationship with the EU”.

But what about the rest of the world? How will the prime minister deliver on his promise of a dynamic, global Britain. What will his promise of complete overhaul of the country’s security, defence and foreign policy look like?

According to the BBC’s diplomatic correspondent James Landale, Johnson was planning to present a far-reaching new foreign policy within 100 days.

A sign of what direction the prime minister will take towards Hong Kong, and as such, the UK’s relationship with China, is likely to come when he reshuffles his cabinet and picks a foreign secretary. Some reports said a reshuffle could happen in February, perhaps earlier.

China tells UK to back off after Boris Johnson warns of Beijing's increasing influence over Hong Kong

If he keeps Dominic Raab, the hard Brexiteer, that could upset the pro-democracy supporters in the party as Raab does not wish to augment the rights of British Nationals (Overseas) passport holders.

There is some speculation he may decide instead to appoint someone like Tom Tugendhat, the respected chairman of the Foreign Affairs Select Committee, who is likely to favour at least improving the status of BN (O) or work with Commonwealth countries to help resettle holders of the passport, if they request it.

Will Boris Johnson keep Dominic Raab as foreign secretary? Photo: Reuters

“The new majority enables [the government] to stand back from the simplistic ‘Golden Era’ view of China, while also avoiding the easy error of adopting an overly confrontational approach,” said Matthew Henderson, Director of the Asia Studies Centre at Henry Jackson Society, one of the more China-hawkish of the UK’s foreign policy think tanks jostling to be heard by the new government.

“Instead it can devise and implement a resilient new China policy based on a proper risk/gain assessment and clarity about Britain’s lasting interests.”

Yu Jie, a China analyst with the more dovish Chatham House said: “China’s rise in the last 10 years or so has shown it could potentially be of enormous benefit economically and financially to this country.

Death of the ‘Golden Era’? UK report demands rethink of China policy as Beijing gets tough

“But will the government be able to handle the highs and lows when it comes to dealing with China diplomatically? So the old dilemma still remains. US China strategic competition the UK will have to stand in between and make some calm choice on what the UK should do.”

There are many pro-China Conservatives embedded in the party and business, and it was probably no coincidence that a day before the election the Chinese ambassador to Beijing publicised a meeting with himself and Barnaby and Merlin Swire, chairman and CEO of the Swire Group, the Hong Kong-listed conglomerate whose activities span property, aviation, beverages and marine services.

Liu Xiaoming, China's ambassador to the UK, meets with Barnaby and Merlin Swire, chairman and CEO of the Swire Group, at the Chinese embassy in London. Photo: Handout
The UK needs Chinese investment, the offer by the Chinese company Jingye of British Steel saving 4,000 jobs in Scunthorpe was a factor last Thursday in the northern English town electing its first Conservative MP since 1983. The Huawei issue also looms large.

“So far Johnson has been able to fudge the question, a binary decision will now have taken on the merits of the arguments for both sides. This decision will determine whether Britain’s future relationship with China works in its national interest,” said Henderson.

Boris Johnson uses Huawei phone for selfie after hinting at UK ban

As the only other nuclear power in the “Five Eyes” intelligence sharing arrangement, it is likely Johnson will follow the US and Australia and ban the Chinese telecoms giant from the UK’s 5G telecoms infrastructure.

While Johnson himself is probably less of a “British Trump” than Donald Trump himself would like to believe, it is unlikely he would want to upset the UK’s relations with the US at this critical stage when he may have to put his “oven-ready deal” with the US in the microwave pretty quickly, especially if the Brexit negotiations prove difficult.

Boris Johnson has so far enjoyed a good relationship with US President Donald Trump. Photo: AFP
But trade talks with the US will not be simple either. There is the emotive and contentious issue of whether US firms will have access to the National Health Service. Both Johnson and Trump have said it won’t, but official trade negotiation position papers say it will.

Even if Trump wants to give his “friend” Johnson a deal, few expect it to take place before November’s US presidential elections, so Democrat-controlled congressional committees will have a major say on any deal.

Senior party members have repeatedly warned that the US Congress would block any deal which threatens the Northern Ireland peace process. It is not known if Brexit could lead to a resurgence of violence in the province.

‘Leaky Lizzie’ or pride of the fleet? UK’s most advanced aircraft carrier eyes global role after mishaps

On defence, the UK will still play a robust role in Nato, despite Trump’s repeated threats to pull out of the alliance.

It also seems likely the UK will support its Western allies and ignore threats of “repercussions” from Beijing and send its state-of the-art aircraft carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth to the Indo-Pacific region, most likely the South China Sea, complete with F-35 jets and escorted by a Dutch warship in 2021.

Japan has already said it would be open to the UK joining the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) that includes countries as diverse and disperse as Australia and Mexico.

The project stalled after Trump vetoed it. An opportunity for the UK to reassert itself perhaps, and make use of its overseas territories scattered along the route.

Most foreign policy experts agree the UK needs to find a new role for itself, and the more sceptical, even a relevance. There is no doubt the Brexit saga has damaged the UK’s reputation in many quarters, some say diminished its relevance.

Boris Johnson on the world stage with other leaders at the recent Nato summit in London. Photo: AFP

“The UK has been absent. This isn’t post-imperial hubris. It’s a fact,” tweeted Tugendhat, an ex-army officer who did not support Brexit.

“The UK has traditionally been the key diplomatic anchor in many multinational organisations but without strategic direction it doesn’t work.”

Johnson’s foreign policy review is likely to include a huge shake-up at the Foreign Office, many of whose current mandarins were said to have little respect for Johnson after his stint as foreign secretary from 2016 to 2018.

Resources are going to be tight everywhere, but it seems likely Johnson will also deliver on his pledge to fold the UK’s aid organisation, DFID into the Foreign Office, and with it its £13.4 billion (US$17.8 billion) budget.

Finally, closer to home and the Middle East, Johnson, who is publicly supportive of Israel, is likely to continue to back the EU in its dealings with both Russia and Iran.

When Johnson was foreign secretary he let slip that he thought not only Iran – but also Saudi Arabia – was inciting proxy wars in the region, for which he was reprimanded by the then Prime Minister Theresa May.

Johnson nevertheless went on to support arms sales to the Saudis.
This article appeared in the South China Morning Post print edition as: Johnson ponders new global role
Post