What will UK be like February 1, the day after Brexit?
- January 31 departure will kick off the first stage of the UK’s exit from the European Union
- Both sides will need to strike terms of their new relationship in trade, security and a host of other areas by the end of 2020
To celebrate the UK leaving the European Union at the end of the month, the Royal Mint will release three million 50 pence coins, emblazoned with the words: “Peace, prosperity and friendship with all nations”.
However, in Britain, many Brexit voters are likely to feel short-changed by UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s election pledge to “get Brexit done” as he struggles with the nitty-gritty of trade deals – not just with the 27 states that make up the EU, but also with the rest of the world.
From February 1, London will no longer send representatives to Brussels to make new laws. The UK will, however, continue to follow 40 years of common legislation on everything from finance to farming subsidies, until the end of the year.
Then comes the hard part, agreeing on the post-Brexit rules and regulations so important to British industry and jobs.
And as the clock ticks down to the January 31 political departure, battle lines are hardening between the two sides, with a hard crash-out at the end of the year still a distinct possibility.
The European Commission, the EU’s executive, said talks on the trade deal that will follow the UK’s departure will only start after EU foreign ministers have approved a negotiating mandate with London at a meeting on February 25.
This means substantial negotiations may not begin until March, another squeeze on the time the two sides have to reach an agreement on post-Brexit trade.
Any hopes of a smooth transition with a simple roll over of existing legislation and customs tariffs were shattered after the UK’s Chancellor of the Exchequer Sajid Javid told The Financial Times at the weekend the UK would not align itself with EU customs regime and regulatory standards.
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“There will not be alignment, we will not be a rule-taker, we will not be in the single market and we will not be in the customs union – and we will do this by the end of the year,” Javid said.
“There will be an impact on business one way or the other, some will benefit, some won’t.”
London is hoping that by playing tough, and sowing divisions between the EU member states, it will force the EU to bend so that the UK can get what it wants. Commentators however say that is wishful thinking.
“The EU has learned over decades of trade negotiations the value of sticking together and has in place mechanisms to do that,” tweeted Lord Peter Rickets, a former UK ambassador and now a member of the House of Lords.
“Threats to walk away won’t cut any ice.
Under Johnson’s withdrawal deal, any request for more time for the talks after December 31 would have to be made by June 30.
If Britain refuses to do that, and if post-Brexit arrangements including complex subjects like data and security, have not been agreed, then Britain once again faces a hard Brexit at the end of the year.
On Wednesday, Johnson’s Brexit bill managed to pass its final hurdle in parliament after the House of Lords abandoned attempts to amend it, leaving the UK on course to leave the European Union next week.
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The bill was approved by Parliament’s upper chamber after the House of Commons overturned changes to the bill made a day earlier by the unelected House of Lords.
The bill will become law when it receives royal assent from Queen Elizabeth, a formality that could come as soon as Thursday.
Meanwhile, regional assemblies the four countries that currently make up the UK have voted against Johnson’s deal, even if they can’t stop Brexit. On Monday, the Northern Ireland Assembly decided not to give its consent to the withdrawal agreement struck with Brussels in December. The Scottish Parliament has already rejected the deal, and the Welsh Assembly did the same on Tuesday.
The short timetable for a trade agreement with Brussels means the UK is likely to begin negotiations with its second largest trading partner, the US, before it has cemented its future relationship with the EU.
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But talks could be in jeopardy if Johnson defies US President Donald Trump to introduce a digital tax that would hit companies like Google and Amazon.
They could also stall if the UK decides to include the Chinese phone giant Huawei in its 5G roll-out plans. US ambassador Woody Johnson was reportedly engaged in a heated exchange with Downing Street officials last week over the issue.
The UK also needs a trade deal with China, and moreover Chinese inward investment, But Beijing has also promised to retaliate if the UK blocks Huawei.
Undeterred, Brexit supporters are planning a celebration outside the House of Parliament on January 31 even though Johnson’s proposal to have Big Ben chime at midnight seems to have hit the wrong note.
Johnson had said the government was working up a plan for the famous bells, that have lay silent for two years while lengthy restoration is carried out “so people can bung a bob for a Big Ben bong”.
Over £200,000 (US$261,340) was raised in a crowdfunding campaign, but the House of Commons Commission, which runs the Houses of Parliament, says it would still be too costly and was unlikely to happen.
“That Boris Johnson could not get Big Ben to bong on Brexit day, even with a gung-ho attitude and promises to throw money at the problem is … in its way a perfect symbolic way for Brexit to begin,” tweeted David Allen Green, a constitutional lawyer and media analyst.
Additional reporting by Reuters and Associated Press
