Britain’s scientists knew coronavirus explosion was coming, but they were slow to raise alarm

Scientists concluded early the virus could be devastating, but for more than two months they did not clearly signal their worsening fears to the government

Boris Johnson, who himself has been sickened by Covid-19, has been criticised for not moving swiftly to organise mass tests and mobilise ventilator supplies

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British Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Photo: AFP

Published: 1:46am, 10 Apr 2020Updated: 5:52am, 10 Apr 2020

It was early spring when British scientists laid out the bald truth to their government. It was “highly likely”, they said, that there was now “sustained transmission” of Covid-19 in the United Kingdom.

If unconstrained and if the virus behaved as in China, up to four-fifths of Britons could be infected and one in a hundred might die, wrote the scientists, members of an official committee set up to model the spread of pandemic flu, on March 2. Their assessment did not spell it out, but that was a prediction of over 500,000 deaths in this nation of nearly 70 million.

Yet the next day, March 3, Prime Minister Boris Johnson was his cheery self. He joked that he was still shaking hands with everyone, including at a hospital treating coronavirus patients.

“Our country remains extremely well prepared,” Johnson said as Italy reached 79 deaths. “We already have a fantastic NHS,” the national public health service, “fantastic testing systems and fantastic surveillance of the spread of disease.”

Alongside him at the Downing Street press conference was Chris Whitty, the government’s chief medical adviser and himself an epidemiologist. Whitty passed on the modelling committee’s broad conclusions, including the prediction of a possible 80 per cent infection rate and the consequent deaths.

But he played them down, saying the number of people who would be infected was probably “a lot lower” and coming up with a total was “largely speculative”.

The upbeat tone of that briefing stood in sharp contrast with the growing unease of many of the government’s scientific advisers behind the scenes. They were already convinced that Britain was on the brink of a disastrous outbreak, a Reuters investigation has found.