Russia will use the opportunity to pull Lukashenko closer into its orbit after the election, according to three people familiar with Kremlin thinking on Belarus. In a sign of preparations for the outcome, Russian state TV has downplayed the opposition’s appeal and emphasised Lukashenko’s popular support.

That narrative may be harder to sustain after Tikhanovskaya gathered a 60,000-strong crowd in Minsk last week. Since then, the authorities have thrown obstacles in the way of other opposition rallies, prompting her to cancel several events, fearing provocations.

The opposition challenger, a stay-at-home mother until she entered the race, says her only goal is to organise a democratic power transition by holding new presidential elections within six months.

After riot police beat protesters and opposition candidates were jailed following 2010 elections, the EU imposed sanctions against Lukashenko’s regime. A harsh response this time risks leaving him a pariah with the West.

“A new round of isolation by the West will leave Minsk face to face with Moscow” and its plans for the “incorporation of Belarus,” said Arseny Sivitsky, director of the Centre for Strategic and Foreign Policy Studies in the Belarusian capital.

Lukashenko has seen his popularity slide domestically amid economic stagnation and his refusal to take decisive measures to contain the spread of the coronavirus. Unlike in previous campaigns, protests have spread from Minsk to other cities and towns, including some with no history of public opposition to him.

Lukashenko vowed the “toughest possible” response to any post-election protests when he addressed the nation on Tuesday in a televised speech before a 2,500-strong audience of officials.

“Any crackdown would harm the relationship with the West, which is exactly what Russia wants,” said Brian Whitmore, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Centre for European Policy Analysis. “This is clearly the toughest election Lukashenko has ever faced, it’s turning into a nightmare for him.”

In his speech, Lukashenko resumed criticism of Russia, which is formally Belarus’s closest ally under a 1999 “Union State” deal. He lamented Russia scaling down bilateral relations from “brotherly” to “partnership” and said Belarus would now also develop strategic ties with the US, China and other countries.

He spoke after Belarus detained the Russian private military contractors it accused of working for the Wagner group controlled by an ally of President Putin last week. It suspected them of plotting to destabilise the country, including through staging terrorist acts.

In a phone call on Wednesday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky asked Lukashenko to extradite those among the 33 detainees who allegedly took part in a Russia-backed uprising in the east of Ukraine.

Russia was shocked by Lukashenko’s attacks, but he’ll have no choice but to return to the negotiating table, according to Fyodor Lukyanov, head of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, a research group that advises the Kremlin.

Can Putin rein in wayward ally Belarus as it cosies up to US?

“It’s clear his omnipotence and self-confidence is ebbing,” Lukyanov said.

The US and its allies can do little except stress to Belarus “that any violence, any major crackdown after the election, would be unacceptable”, said Joerg Forbrig, director for Central and Eastern Europe at the German Marshall Fund of the United States. “There is a clear intention on Moscow’s part to speed up integration.”