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POLITICO

 This story is published in a content partnership with POLITICO. It was originally reported by Maryia Sadouskaya-Komlach on politico.com on August 29, 2020.
Protests in Belarus have sparked feverish debates about a potential transition of power in Minsk. But the question of who would replace the country’s decades-long ruler Alexander Lukashenko and garner support from a majority of Belarusians is far from clear.
After decades of autocratic rule with little to no public political space, Belarus does not yet have an organised pro-democracy political force. That makes it hard to predict who might emerge as a potential leader.
After all, the three most popular opposition figures in the run-up to the August 9 presidential election – Viktor Babariko, Valery Tsepkalo and Sergei Tikhanovsky, later represented by his wife Svetlana – were not considered likely contenders a year ago.
Were Lukashenko to step down or agree to free and fair elections, it would open the door for dozens of other potential candidates.
What’s clear, however, is that there are a series of political moulds into which any new Belarusian leader would be likely to fit. Here is a breakdown of potential profiles.
Tens of thousands protest in Belarus as Putin phones Lukashenko
The Russophile
The pro-Russian candidate will accuse Lukashenko’s government of trying to turn its back on Moscow even as it enjoyed enormous financial and political support from the Kremlin. They will remind voters that the government in 2005 promised to introduce a common currency with Russia but never delivered, despite continuing to benefit from Russia’s markets and financial subsidies.
They will take aim at pro-Belarusian candidates, labelling nationalists as “Nazis,” and argue that Belarusian should no longer be considered a state language, given that a majority of the population speaks Russian on a daily basis. They will advocate for deeper ties and more immediate cooperation with Moscow and will portray themselves as credible partners for the Kremlin.
The most likely candidates: Oleg Gaidukevich, an acting MP representing the Liberal Democratic Party of Belarus. Although he joined Lukashenko’s re-election campaign, Gaidukevich was critical of authorities’ violent treatment of protesters and opposition members in the election aftermath. He also announced the creation of the People’s Patriotic Movement of Belarus, a party whose main goal is to preserve ties with Russia, and the Collective Security Treaty Organisation, a military alliance of post-Soviet states.
Another potential candidate is Elvira Mirsalimova, the deputy chairwoman of the movement Civil Accord, which runs the pro-Kremlin media outlet Politring. She has criticised the Belarusian authorities for failing to strengthen relations with Russia, repeatedly asserted that Belarusians are Russians and called Josef Stalin a “prominent political leader”.

Other candidates: Viktor Babariko is a bank manager with pro-Russian views who intended to run in the presidential election but was barred from entering despite collecting more than 300,000 signatures. Valery Tsepkalo, the presidential hopeful who escaped to Europe via Moscow, is also an option. He penned an open letter to the Russian president asking him to stop supporting Lukashenko (and also appealed to Western leaders to support the protests).
Who would support them? Support for this candidate will likely depend on how close a relationship with Russia they say they want.
According to independent pollster Belarusian Analytical Workroom, pro-Russian attitudes in Belarus have slumped to a 20-year low: less than 50 per cent support further integration with Russian, the December 2019 poll found, and only 3.7 per cent of Belarusians support the idea of becoming a subject of the Russian Federation.
Still, the number of those who would want a hard border with Russia is also negligible, at 6.8 per cent. Overall, some 42 per cent think it is better for Belarus to maintain its union with Russia than to join the European Union, and 76 per cent believe the two countries should maintain friendly relations.
The young Belarusian blogger mobilising protesters with Telegram app
The Europhile
Any campaign to replace Lukashenko is likely to include at least one aspiring pro-European leader who will try to appeal to Belarusians’ European identity and play up the country’s proximity to the EU.
Belarus shares a border with three EU countries and is a member of the Eastern Partnership, a joint initiative involving the EU and six Eastern European countries – something that a pro-European candidate will argue gives Minsk the chance to rid itself of its dependency on Russia and seek closer integration with the EU.
The candidate will pledge to seek similar benefits as Ukraine or Georgia: an association agreement, trade benefits, or a visa-free regime for citizens, for example. And as the EU is not keen to open up accession talks for potential new members from Eastern Europe, the Europhile candidate will be able to argue that strengthening ties with the EU doesn’t have to mean pushing Russia away completely.

The most likely candidates: The Europhile is likely to be part of the traditional opposition and to have ties to the European institutions, including the European Parliament’s most powerful groups and factions. Several politicians could be contenders: Andrei Sannikov, an exiled ex-deputy foreign minister and ex-presidential candidate who is leader of the European Belarus initiative; Alexander Milinkevich, another ex-presidential candidate and leader of the movement For Freedom; and Anatol Lyabedzka, former head of United Civil Party. Another possible contender is Volha Kavalkova, a political figure of the new generation who is serving 10 days in prison for her role in organising protests and is well connected in Brussels and other European capitals.
Other candidates: Pavel Latushko, a former culture minister and the former ambassador to Poland and France. He openly came out against Lukashenko following the August election and has become a prominent figure in the protests as well as a member of the presidium of the opposition’s Coordination Council.
As 100,000 marched in Belarus, Lukashenko armed himself with a Kalashnikov
Who would support them? According to the BAW study, some 32 per cent of Belarusians believe their lives would be improved if Belarus struck a partnership with the EU rather than stay in its union with Russia. This base has the potential to grow significantly, a poll commissioned last year by the EU Neighbours East project found: Some 89 per cent of Belarusians have either a positive or a neutral image of the EU and 51 per cent of people in Belarus trust the EU.
If the Europhile candidate can keep friendly or neutral relations with Russia while seeking more cooperation with the EU, they may even garner support from Russophiles – especially if the EU actively supports the position that Belarus, for now, does not need to choose between Russia and the EU.
The nationalist
Under other circumstances, this candidate would be called a “patriot”. But after decades of Russian-language dominance in education, business and government, anyone advocating for Belarusian identity and language is likely to be portrayed as an extremist (or in the language of some pro-Kremlin figures, a “Nazi”).
This candidate will seek to represent Belarusian speakers who felt excluded and discriminated against by the previous government. Their values could range from conservatism to neoliberalism, but their main focus will be on restoring the status of the Belarusian language and scrapping the official recognition of Russian, which became the second state language in a 1995 referendum.
The most likely candidates: Exiled politician Zianon Pazniak could be a leading contender (if laws are changed to allow those who have lived outside the country for more than 10 years to run for president). Vehemently anti-Russia, Pazniak sees the hand of the Kremlin in most of the current opposition movements and figureheads.

Another potential candidate is Pavel Seviarynets, a charismatic and well-known Christian democrat who has played an active role in pro-Belarusian movements since the mid-1990s and ran in the 2010 presidential election. Arrested before election day this August, he now faces up to 15 years in prison on charges of rioting and has already served more than 75 days for participating in unsanctioned public gatherings.
Other candidates: Former MP and deputy chairwoman of the Society of the Belarusian Language Alena Anisim is a vocal advocate for the issue and has openly challenged Lukashenko’s position on it.
Who would support them? Support for these candidates will likely come from an educated minority of Belarusian-speakers across the country. Activists have already been successful in pushing for Belarusian-language education for their children and expanding the official use of Belarusian.
(Some 60 per cent of Belarusians consider Belarusian to be their mother tongue, according to state-run ONT TV. Official surveys put the figure closer to 47 per cent, with the same number considering both Russian and Belarusian their mother tongue.)
Could red-and-white Belarus ‘protest flag’ provoke a Russian intervention?
If the nationalist candidate is too conservative on minority rights – for example arguing gay people should be excluded from pro-democratic movements and calling homosexuality a disease, as Seviarynets has done – some of their potential supporters could choose the Europhile candidate instead. Or, what’s perhaps more likely, they could ramp up pressure on all candidates to commit to supporting the revival of the Belarusian language instead.
The ‘democratic’ Lukashenko
Given how long Lukashenko was in power, it’ll come as no surprise to see at least one candidate who will seek to maintain some of the more popular pillars of the Lukashenko regime, such as its pensions and social security schemes, its heavy hand in the economy and its support for the official status of the Russian language.
They will promise a more relaxed grip in other areas, for example allowing a greater level of free speech and political participation. They will also be advocates of a very gradual economic reform but will keep up the Lukashenko strategy of playing the EU and Russia off each other when it comes to foreign policy.
The most likely candidates: Current or recent government officials, such as ex-prime minister Sergey Rumas or current Foreign Minister Vladimir Makey. Both have been named as possible contenders before but, unsurprisingly, denied all rumours about their political ambitions.
Other candidates: It is an unlikely scenario, but Lukashenko could bow to pressure to become a more moderate ruler in order to stay in office.
Who will support them? Many Belarusians are worried about their economic prospects and could be swayed to vote for an establishment figure if they pledge to keep the country’s economy on track and protect people’s livelihoods.
According to a survey by The Washington Post, “more than 60 per cent of respondents mentioned rising prices and inflation as their top concerns, followed by low wages and unemployment”. If a candidate can guarantee the government will not start firing workers en masse in outdated industries and will maintain salaries and pensions at a decent level – all while looking and sounding like a more progressive politician – they have a solid chance of winning hearts and minds.
Maryia Sadouskaya-Komlach is a Belarusian journalist and programme coordinator at Free Press Unlimited.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/29/who-can-replace-lukashenko-in-belarus-404896


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Who can replace Lukashenko in Belarus?

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko addresses his supporters during a rally in Minsk, Belarus. Photo: EPA

Two women kiss covered by an old Belarusian national flag as Belarusian opposition supporters gather towards the Independence Palace in Minsk, Belarus, Sunday, Aug. 30, 2020. Tens of thousands of demonstrators have gathered in the capital of Belarus, beginning the fourth week of daily protests demanding that the country's authoritarian president resign. The protests began after an Aug. 9 presidential election that protesters say was rigged and officials say gave President Alexander Lukashenko a sixth term in office. (AP Photo)

Belarusian opposition supporters with old Belarusian national flags gather towards the Independence Palace in Minsk, Belarus, Sunday, Aug. 30, 2020. Tens of thousands of demonstrators gathered in the capital of Belarus, beginning the fourth week of daily protests demanding that the country's authoritarian president resign. The protests began after an Aug. 9 presidential election that protesters say was rigged and officials say gave President Alexander Lukashenko a sixth term in office. (AP Photo)

Former presidential candidate Andrei Sannikov gestures from a car after he was released from a prison and arrived in Minsk, April 15, 2012. Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko on Saturday freed jailed opposition leader Andrei Sannikov after the European Union imposed new sanctions on the former Soviet republic, Sannikov told Reuters. Sannikov, a former deputy foreign minister and presidential candidate, was sentenced to five years in prison last year for taking part in a protest that followed Lukashenko's disputed re-election victory in December 2010. REUTERS/Vasily Fedosenko (BELARUS - Tags: CRIME LAW POLITICS SOCIETY)

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Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko speaks during a rally in his support on Saturday. He has rejected the idea of holding another ballot and dismissed calls to resign. Photo: AP

epa08616138 Belarusian opposition candidate for President, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya attends a press conference in Vilnius, Lithuania, 21 August 2020. Tikhanovskaya fled to Lithuania with her family following the 09 August Belarus presidential election. Opposition in Belarus alleges poll-rigging and police violence at protests following election results claiming that president Lukashenko had won a landslide victory in the 09 August elections. EPA-EFE/STR

People hold flowers as they attend an opposition demonstration to protest against presidential election results in Minsk, Belarus August 22, 2020. REUTERS/Vasily Fedosenko

People listen to Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko during a rally in his support in Grodno, Belarus, Saturday, Aug. 22, 2020. On Saturday, Lukashenko renewed the allegation during a visit to a military exercise in the Grodno region, near the borders of Poland and Lithuania. (Leonid Shcheglov/BelTA Pool Photo via AP)

epa08618164 Belarusian President-elect Alexander Lukashenko (C) and Belarus Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin (R) visit the training ground of the 6th separate guards mechanized brigade near Grodno, Belarus, 22 August 2020. Lukashenko said that events in the country are proceeding according to the 'plan of color revolutions' with the participation of 'an external factor'. EPA-EFE/ANDREI STASEVICH / BELTA / POOL MANDATORY CREDIT

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A woman plays the violin in Minsk on Monday during a protest against the results of the Belarus presidential elections. Photo: EPA-EFE

Law enforcement officers detain a man during a rally of opposition supporters to protest against disputed presidential elections results in Minsk on August 24, 2020. (Photo by Sergei GAPON / AFP)

This image made from video provided by the State TV and Radio Company of Belarus, shows Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko armed with a Kalashnikov-type rifle near the Palace of Independence in Minsk, Belarus, Sunday, Aug. 23, 2020. Lukashenko has made a dramatic show of defiance against the massive protests demanding his resignation, toting a rifle and wearing a bulletproof vest as he strode off a helicopter that landed at his residence while demonstrators massed nearby. (State TV and Radio Company of Belarus via AP)

Belarus opposition figurehead Svetlana Tikhanovskaya is pictured during an AFP interview in Vilnius, Lithuania, on August 22, 2020. - Tikhanovskaya urged pro-democracy protesters to keep up the momentum, saying President Alexander Lukashenko had "no choice" but to engage with the opposition. (Photo by PETRAS MALUKAS / AFP)

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Presidential candidate Svetlana Tikhanovskaya holds a press conference the day after Belarus' presidential election in Minsk on August 10, 2020. (Photo by Sergei GAPON / AFP)

epa08593267 Belarusian opposition presidential candidate Svetlana Tikhanovskaya (C) arrives to a polling station for voting during the presidential elections in Minsk, Belarus, 09 August 2020. Five candidates are contesting for the presidential seat, including incumbent president Alexander Lukashenko. EPA-EFE/TATYANA ZENKOVICH

epa08592932 Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko smiles as he arrives to a polling station for voting during the presidential elections in Minsk, Belarus, 09 August 2020. Five candidates are contesting for the presidential seat, including the incumbent president Alexander Lukashenko. EPA-EFE/TATYANA ZENKOVICH

Opposition supporters scuffle with law enforcement officers after poll closed at presidential election in Minsk, Belarus August 9, 2020. Dmitry Brushko/Tut.By via REUTERS ATTENTION EDITORS - THIS IMAGE HAS BEEN SUPPLIED BY A THIRD PARTY. NO RESALES. NO ARCHIVES.

Protesters shout "Go away!" as they gather after the Belarusian presidential election in Minsk, Belarus, Sunday, Aug. 9, 2020. Belarus police and protesters clashed in the capital and the city of Brest Sunday night after a presidential election in which the country's longtime leader sought a sixth term despite rising discontent with his authoritarian rule and his cavalier dismissal of the coronavirus pandemic. (AP Photo/Sergei Grits)

A protester speaks to police as they block the road during a rally after the Belarusian presidential election in Minsk, Belarus. Photo: AP

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The detentions are the latest twist in a presidential election campaign that has posed the biggest challenge in years to President Alexander Lukashenko’s iron-fisted rule. Photo: Reuters

Presidential candidate Svetlana Tikhanouskaya waves during an election campaign rally in Borisov, Belarus July 23, 2020. REUTERS/Vasily Fedosenko

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Politico | Who can replace Lukashenko in Belarus?

Winning the fight for free elections would just be the beginning