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Politico | Who can replace Lukashenko in Belarus?
- Winning the fight for free elections would just be the beginning
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This story is published in a content partnership with POLITICO. It was originally reported by Maryia Sadouskaya-Komlach on politico.com on August 29, 2020.
Protests in Belarus have sparked feverish debates about a potential transition of power in Minsk. But the question of who would replace the country’s decades-long ruler Alexander Lukashenko and garner support from a majority of Belarusians is far from clear.
After decades of autocratic rule with little to no public political space, Belarus does not yet have an organised pro-democracy political force. That makes it hard to predict who might emerge as a potential leader.
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After all, the three most popular opposition figures in the run-up to the August 9 presidential election – Viktor Babariko, Valery Tsepkalo and Sergei Tikhanovsky, later represented by his wife Svetlana – were not considered likely contenders a year ago.
Were Lukashenko to step down or agree to free and fair elections, it would open the door for dozens of other potential candidates.
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What’s clear, however, is that there are a series of political moulds into which any new Belarusian leader would be likely to fit. Here is a breakdown of potential profiles.
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