Sweden, on the other hand, remains the outlier in Europe, refusing lockdowns despite reporting an uptick in infections and even gradually easing certain restrictions.

In France, a three-month-long lockdown brought the virus under control, government epidemiologist Arnaud Fontanet said, but with it came a false sense of security during the summer. By late July, the caseload was trending higher again, though it was a cold snap that altered the disease’s trajectory, he added.

“There was one cold week in September and all the indicators went the wrong way again all over Europe,” he said. “The virus spreads better in the cold because we live more inside.”

France’s health care system is again buckling under the pressure even though doctors say the average Covid patient’s stay in ICU is twice as short as during the spring peak as doctors learn how to better tackle the disease. Covid patients occupy nearly half of all the country’s 5,000 ICU beds.

“It is possible the second wave will be worse than the first,” Martin Hirsch, head of public hospitals in Paris, warned on RTL radio. “No one can say when the peak will come.”

Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire’s warning of a strong risk of contraction in the French economy, the euro zone’s second biggest, in the fourth quarter underscored concerns a double-dip recession may loom ahead for the single currency bloc.

In the UK, central Manchester was eerily quiet on Friday after the central government imposed its most stringent measures on the city and its surrounding region, following bitter resistance from local leaders who wanted more money to help affected businesses and workers.

The English county of South Yorkshire will also face the same “very high” alert from Saturday, with many pubs and other hospitality venues closing and residents banned from mixing with others indoors.

The latest measures add to the regions already classed as very high risk or tier three, meaning roughly 7.3 million people in England will be living under the country’s most stringent restrictions from the weekend.

Boris Johnson says coronavirus pandemic a catalyst for change in UK

The UK is battling to get a grip on a resurgence of Covid-19, which has killed more than 44,000 people in total – Europe’s worst national toll. But the government of Prime Minister Boris Johnson has resisted calls for a second national lockdown, arguing that its tiered system is better suited to target regions facing the biggest threat.

To protect the economy and avoid more lockdowns, the government has set great store by an ambitious programme to test people for Covid-19 and trace their contacts. The reported cost so far runs to more than £12 billion (US$16 billion). But the numbers of people being tested and traced are falling well short of official targets, and government scientists say the programme is having only a marginal impact on controlling infection rates.

“I share people’s frustrations and I understand totally why we do need to see faster turnaround times [for test results], and we need to improve it,” Johnson said during Thursday’s news conference.

Belgium, which has Europe’s second-highest infection rate per capita after the Czech Republic, has had already closed cafes, bars and restaurants and imposed a night curfew, and has. New infections hit a peak of 10,500 on Thursday.

But the government has resisted calls from medical experts to order a new lockdown to avoid causing more economic pain.

The restrictions – running until November 19 – also include stricter social distancing. They are intended to avoid crowding on public transport, and impose a limit of 200 people in theatres, concert halls and cinemas.

“We are pressing the pause button … we have a single objective, which is to limit contacts that are not strictly necessary,” Belgian Prime Minister Alexander de Croo told a news conference. “There’s no law that can stop the virus, the only ones who can stop it are us … all together.”

Belgium is expected to record a daily rate of 20,000 new infections by next week, a spokesperson for the Sciensano health institute said.

Meanwhile, Sweden remains the exception, eschewing lockdowns and even easing certain restrictions. Sweden has recorded 5,930 Covid-related deaths, one of Europe’s highest per capita death tolls. After two months of declining cases in July and August, Sweden has reported infections rising steadily since mid-September.

The country on Thursday introduced restrictions on nightclubs, with Prime Minister Stefan Lofven admonishing Swedes “that the party is over now in nightclubs, and it needs to stay that way for as long as necessary”.

Yet Sweden remains one of the only countries in the world that still does not recommend face masks, arguing they provide a false sense of security that undermines social distancing efforts.

The government also lifted its special recommendation in place since April for people over the age of 70 and risk groups to shield themselves. There were concerns the measure was isolating them too much and leading to other public health issues like depression and loneliness.

Public gatherings of more than 50 people have been prohibited since late March, but the government said Thursday cultural and sporting events could now accommodate 300 people as long as they respected social distancing.

In the capital Stockholm, daily life appears to carry on almost as normal, as locals stroll through the city bundled up against the chilly autumn weather and stopping in at cafes, restaurants and shops that have remained open throughout the pandemic.

And while images in the media occasionally show crowded city buses and restaurants, surveys by the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency found that 80 per cent of Swedes have changed their behaviour as a result of recommendations. They are working from home or limiting social contacts – even though there are no fines or sanctions for disregarding them.

In the Sodermalm neighbourhood of Stockholm, where mostly unmasked cyclists and pedestrians hurried to work during the morning rush hour, Roger Palmqvist said he trusted the Swedish approach.

But he acknowledged the lighter Swedish touch would probably not work everywhere.

“There’s nothing that forces you, but Swedes are like that you know, they follow [rules],” said the 60-year-old sea captain, noting that cultures were different in other parts of Europe.

Additional reporting by Agence France-Presse