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Coronavirus pandemic
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Coronavirus: Britain could hit herd immunity by Monday, scientists say

  • Almost three-quarters of the population now have antibodies against the virus, either through vaccination or past infection, according to researchers
  • Many other scientists think Britain is much further from herd immunity than the University College London’s model suggests, however

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A woman receives a dose of Covid-19 vaccine at a hospital in Wales earlier this month. Photo AP
Bloomberg
Britain’s increased rates of Covid-19 immunity has raised the prospect of moving on from the worst of the pandemic, with some scientists saying the country could cross the so-called herd immunity threshold as soon as Monday.
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According to researchers at University College London, almost three-quarters of the population will have antibodies against the virus by then, either through vaccination or past infection, they estimate.

Britain has already seen a plunge in new cases and deaths, and the government will relax restrictions, including on outdoor dining, on Monday. Those developments have fuelled hopes that the nation will soon shake off its pandemic shackles.

A woman walks past a Covid-19 vaccination centre in London earlier this month. Photo: WPA
A woman walks past a Covid-19 vaccination centre in London earlier this month. Photo: WPA

Many other scientists think Britain is much further from herd immunity than the University College London’s model suggests. It has come under fire from some who say it overestimates the strength of vaccines and does not adequately account for waning immunity and new virus variants. No more than 40 per cent of the country has protection from Covid-19, according to estimates by Imperial College London.

“There’s a lot of uncertainty about the length of immunity, both vaccine immunity and natural immunity,” said Anne Cori, a lecturer at Imperial. “If immunity is waning, you might lose herd immunity after you reach it.”

Still, the progress marks a milestone for the European country hardest hit by the pandemic, with more than 127,000 fatalities, and for Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who was criticised for a slow response to the crisis.
Britain’s Prime Minister Boris Johnson was criticised for a slow initial response to the public health crisis. Photo: AFP
Britain’s Prime Minister Boris Johnson was criticised for a slow initial response to the public health crisis. Photo: AFP
In the early days, his government’s chief scientific adviser suffered a backlash after speaking about Britain’s apparent ambition to “build up some degree of herd immunity” – exposing a proportion of the population to the virus – but he has since insisted this was never official policy and claims he was misinterpreted.
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