Will Russia invade Ukraine? ‘Low to medium’ risk in next few weeks, US general says
- Russian build-up, deadly clashes along shared border with Ukraine a growing concern in the West
- Moscow insists it’s free to deploy forces wherever it deems necessary on its territory
There was a “low to medium” risk that Russia would invade Ukraine over the next few weeks, the top US general in Europe said on Thursday, in the first such military assessment amid mounting concern about Russian troop movements toward Ukraine’s borders.
The assessment came as Ukraine’s top diplomat asked for stronger Western backing, saying “words of support aren’t enough” amid escalating tensions in the country’s east.
US Air Force General Tod Wolters declined to explain the intelligence driving his assessment, which does not suggest that the US military expected a Russian invasion at this point, but he was not ruling one out nor playing down the risk.
But, in testimony before a House of Representatives committee he later suggested his view about the risks in the coming weeks and months was at least partly based on the disposition of Russian forces.
The Pentagon has declined to detail its assessment on the size and composition of those troops, referring reporters to Moscow. However, the White House disclosed last week that Russia had more troops on Ukraine’s eastern border than at any time since 2014, when it annexed Crimea and backed separatist territory seizures.
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Russian troops massing near Ukraine’s eastern border sparks invasion fear
Russia has argued that it’s free to deploy its forces wherever it deems necessary on its territory. The Russian defense minister charged earlier this week that the build-up was a response to security threats posed by Nato forces near Russia’s borders.