Why this week’s French elections matter to the rest of the world
- France is the EU’s second largest economy, the only one with a UN Security Council veto, and its sole nuclear power
- France is a vital friend for America – Presidents Biden and Macron are now on solid terms, despite last year’s spat over an Australian submarine deal
With war singing the European Union’s eastern edge, French voters will be casting ballots in a presidential election whose outcome will have international implications. France is the 27-member bloc’s second biggest economy, the only one with a UN Security Council veto, and its sole nuclear power. And as Russian President Vladimir Putin carries on with the war in Ukraine, French power will help shape Europe’s response.
Twelve candidates are vying for the presidency – including incumbent and favourite President Emmanuel Macron who is seeking a new term amid a challenge from the far-right. The French election takes place in two rounds and starts on Sunday.
Man cracks egg on head of French presidential runner Eric Zemmour
Macron’s pro-Nato credentials
Macron is the only front-runner who supports the alliance while other candidates hold differing views on France’s role within it, including abandoning it entirely. Such a development would deal a huge blow to an alliance built to protect its members in the then emerging Cold War 73 years ago.
“Macron really wants to create a European pillar of Nato,” says Susi Dennison, Senior Fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. “He has used it for his shuttle diplomacy over Ukraine conflict.”
On the far-left, candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon wants to quit Nato outright. As president, he might be a concern especially for Poland, which has a 1,160-kilometre border with territory now controlled by Russia.
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European security and defence investment
Observers say a Macron re-election would spell real likelihood for increased cooperation and investment in European security and defence – especially with a new pro-EU German government.
Under Macron’s watch, France’s defence spending has risen by €7 billion euros (US$7.6 billion) with a target to raise it to 2 per cent of gross domestic product – something he would almost certainly want to build up.
A far-right alliance?
This election could indicate whether European populism is ascendant or in decline. With populist Viktor Orban winning a fourth consecutive term as Hungary’s prime minister days ago, eyes have now turned to France’s resurgent far right candidates – especially National Rally leader Marine Le Pen.
“If a far-right candidate wins, it could create some sort of alliance or axis in Europe,” said Dennison, of the European Council on Foreign Relations. That axis might include Poland’s President Andrzej Duda, a right-wing populist and ally of Donald Trump. It has alarmed observers.
“Over 30 per cent of French voters right now say they are going to vote for a far right candidate. If you include Melenchon as another extreme, anti-system candidate – that is almost half the entire voting population. It is unprecedented,” Dennison said.
French voters in Covid-hit Shanghai unable to cast ballots in election
A friend of America
The US often touts France as its oldest ally – and from Russian sanctions to climate change and the United Nations, Washington needs a reliable partner in Paris. France is a vital transatlantic friend for America, not least for its status as continental Europe’s only permanent UN Security Council member wielding veto power.
Despite the bitter US-France spat last year over a multibillion deal to supply Australia with submarines – which saw France humiliated – President Joe Biden and Macron are now on solid terms.
Migration in the continent
In light of a huge migrant influx into Europe last year, France’s position on migration will continue to strongly impact countries on its periphery and beyond. This is especially so because of its geographical location as a leg on the journey of many migrants to the UK.
Observers consider France not to be a particularly open to migrants within a European context and see Macron as a relative hardliner on migration. But Le Pen or Zemmour would likely usher in tougher policies than Macron if they either emerges victorious.
