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Reuters

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Finland and Sweden have been considering applying for membership of the Nato military alliance, which would mark a major policy shift for the Nordic region.
Here is the latest about the process and the key points under discussion:
What are the key steps ahead?
The coming days are crucial. On May 12, Finland will decide to apply for Nato membership, newspaper Iltalehti reported on Sunday, citing anonymous Finnish government sources.
It would come in two steps, Iltalehti reported. President Sauli Niinisto would first announce his approval for Finland to join, followed by parliamentary groups giving their approval for the application.
There would be no plenary vote in parliament but parliamentary group leaders expressing their groups’ decisions.
Reuters was not immediately available to confirm the report.
In Sweden, parliament is conducting a security policy review, including the pros and cons of joining the alliance, with the results due on May 13. There is already a majority in parliament in support of Nato membership.
Russia ‘would deploy nuclear arms’ if Finland, Sweden join Nato
In parallel, the ruling Social Democrats, the biggest party in every election for the last 100 years, will have an internal debate on May 9-12 on whether to drop long-standing opposition to Nato membership, with the party leadership to take a decision by May 24 at the latest.
If Finland applies, Sweden is likely to do the same, as it would not want to be the sole Nordic outsider. Other Nordic countries – Norway, Denmark and Iceland – have joined the pact as founding members. Several recent polls suggest a majority of Swedes are in favour – something never seen before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Any sticking points?
Finland and Sweden would like to have some guarantees that Nato member nations would defend them during any transition period, when they would be applicants to the alliance, but not yet in.
Ratification can take a year, Nato diplomats say, as parliaments of all 30 Nato countries need to approve new members.
Nato Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has said the countries could join “quickly” and that he was sure arrangements could be found for the interim period.

The United States and Britain have promised Sweden “increased military presence, more in-depth military exercises and ‘strong political’ support from Nato countries” during a possible Nato application process, Swedish daily Aftonbladet reported.
Finnish Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto acknowledged filing a membership application by itself would not bring the two Nordic countries under the umbrella of Nato’s Article 5, which guarantees that an attack on one ally is an attack on all.
“But at the same time Nato member countries have an interest in that no security breaches would take place during the application period,” Haavisto said, adding that Finland could, for instance, hold enhanced military exercises with Nato members during that time.
Denmark, Sweden summon Russian envoys over airspace breaches
What is Russia saying?
Moscow has repeatedly warned of “serious consequences” if Finland and Sweden join Nato, saying it would have to strengthen its land, naval and air forces in the Baltic Sea, and raised the possibility of deploying nuclear weapons in the area.
Russia and Finland share a 1,300km (810 miles) border; the Kola Peninsula is a “strategic bastion” Moscow considers key for Russia’s national security; it is also the home of the Russian Northern Fleet; and Russia’s second-biggest city, St Petersburg, lies some 170km from the border with Finland.
Additional reporting by Associated Press


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Nato

The path to Nato membership for Finland and Sweden

A Swedish Armed Forces Patria XA-360 AMV (Armoured Modular Vehicle). File photo: AFP

Finnish Defence Forces participating in the international military exercise Cold Response 22, at Setermoen, in Norway. Photo: AFP

Ukraine war: US says Russia’s top general Valery Gerasimov visited Donbas front where Kyiv claimed deadly attack

Russian military’s Chief of the General Staff, Valery Gerasimov. File photo: Reuters

Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu (right) and chief of the general staff Valery Gerasimov. Photo: AFP

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World military spending reaches record levels: SIPRI report

The top five spenders were the United States, China, India, Britain and Russia. Photo: AFP

Russian Yars RS-24 intercontinental ballistic missile systems. File photo: AFP

Ukraine war: Finland ‘highly likely’ to apply for Nato membership, says minister

Finnish soldiers next to a tank in March during a military exercise in Norway gathering around 30,000 troops from Nato member countries, plus Finland and Sweden, amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Photo: Reuters

Finland’s European Affairs Minister Tytti Tuppurainen. File photo: AFP

Ukraine war: Russia ‘would deploy nuclear arms’ if Finland, Sweden join Nato

Soldiers from the Finnish Defence Forces.
The Russian assault on Ukraine sparked a dramatic U-turn in public and political opinion in Finland and neighbouring Sweden regarding the Nordic countries’ long-held policies of military non-alignment. File photo: AFP

Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin, left, welcomes her Swedish counterpart Magdalena Andersson at the Prime Minister’s official residence Kesaranta in Helsinki. Photo: dpa

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Coming fortnight seen as crucial as Ukraine war changes public opinion in Finland and Sweden about joining Nato
Nato’s collective security guarantee ensures that all member countries must come to the aid of any ally under attack


Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has pushed Finland and Sweden to the verge of applying for Nato membership and abandoning a belief held for decades that peace was best kept by not publicly choosing sides.


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