US House approves US$40 billion Ukraine aid as ‘Putin prepares for long war’
- Proposed billions in US aid would fund new weapons for Ukraine and provide economic assistance
- US spy chief warns Putin is preparing for ‘prolonged’ war in Ukraine and it’s likely to become ‘more unpredictable and escalatory’
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US lawmakers voted on Tuesday to send a US$40 billion aid package to Ukraine as Washington warned that Russia was likely girding for a long conflict with its neighbour.
The defence, humanitarian and economic funding passed the House of Representatives by 368 votes to 57, with the two parties’ leaders having already reached an agreement on the details, and it will likely pass the Senate by the end of the week or next week.
All the dissenting votes came from the Republican ranks.
“With this aid package, America sends a resounding message to the world of our unwavering determination to stand with the courageous people of Ukraine until victory is won,” House Speaker Nancy Pelosi told her Democratic colleagues ahead of the vote.
Congressional leaders struck a deal on Monday to release US$6.8 billion more than the US$33 billion previously requested by the White House to help the Eastern European nation ward off Moscow’s invasion.
The financial boost includes an extra US$3.4 billion for both military and humanitarian assistance on top of the funding requested by the administration.
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If the package passes the Senate as expected, US spending to bolster Ukraine’s defences against Russia’s invasion and address the ensuing humanitarian crisis will soar to around US$54 billion.
The action comes as a top US official warned that Russian President Vladimir Putin is preparing for a long war that may not end with Russian victory in the east.
“We assess President Putin is preparing for prolonged conflict in Ukraine during which he still intends to achieve goals beyond the Donbas,” Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines said at a hearing on Capitol Hill.
Russia’s war has killed thousands of civilians, sent millions of Ukrainians fleeing and reduced cities to rubble. Moscow has little to show for it beyond a strip of territory in the south and marginal gains in the east.
Russian forces still intend to win territory across the Black Sea coast, in part to secure water resources for Crimea, which Moscow seized in 2014, Haines said.
“We … see indications that the Russian military wants to extend the land bridge to Transnistria,” Haines said, referring to the Moscow-backed separatist region of Moldova along Ukraine’s southwest border.
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However, she said the current Russian force is not large or strong enough to capture and hold all that territory without a more general mobilisation of troops and resources from Russian society.
The Russia leader “faces a mismatch between his ambitions and Russia’s current conventional military capabilities,” she said.
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That “likely means the next few months could see us moving along a more unpredictable and potentially escalatory trajectory,” she said.
“The current trend increases the likelihood that President Putin will turn to more drastic means, including imposing martial law, reorienting industrial production, or potentially escalatory military options to free up the resources needed to achieve his objectives,” Haines told the panel.
She added that Putin was counting on the Western resolve to weaken over time and as the conflict continued, there was concern about how it would develop in the coming months.
“Combined with the reality that Putin faces a mismatch between his ambitions and Russia’s current conventional military capabilities, likely means the next few months could see us moving along a more unpredictable and potentially escalatory trajectory,” Haines added.
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During the same hearing, the head of the Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA) said the war was at a stalemate.
“The Russians aren’t winning and the Ukrainians aren’t winning and we’re at a bit of a stalemate here,” said Lieutenant General Scott Berrier, the head of the DIA.
President Vladimir Putin exhorted Russians to battle in a defiant Victory Day speech on Monday but was silent about plans for any escalation in Ukraine despite Western warnings he might use his Red Square address to order a national mobilisation.
Haines, who oversees the entire US intelligence community, including the CIA and National Security Agency, said they do not believe the Russia leader is prepared to escalate the conflict by deploying nuclear weapons.
Putin uses nuclear “rhetoric” to scare the West from backing Ukraine, according to Haines.
As he perceives the West as ignoring those threats, she said Russia could step up the rhetoric by launching a new nuclear forces exercise involving the dispersal of his land, air and submarine nuclear threats.
Nevertheless, Haines said US intelligence believes Putin would only approve the use of even smaller “tactical” nuclear weapons if Russia itself was under “existential threat”.
She said Moscow would escalate its signalling to make clear at what point it was ready to use a nuclear weapon.
Additional reporting by Reuters
