Ukraine strategy targets Russian army lifelines in Kherson. When is the big counteroffensive?

For weeks now, Ukrainian forces have methodically targeted supply lines of Russian troops occupying the strategically important region and city of Kherson. That doesn’t mean they may be close to launching a large-scale offensive to take it back.

Outgunned despite supplies of new weapons from its US and European allies, Ukraine’s military has so far avoided a major assault on the southern city that straddles the Dnipro river and was among the first to fall to Russia’s invasion.

Instead, they’ve focused on a policy of attrition, deploying US-supplied HIMARS artillery missiles and other long-range weapons to blow up bridges used to resupply Russian troops dug in on Kherson’s west bank.

Ukraine is likely preparing a counteroffensive in the south but will only strike if and when it’s confident of making progress, and Russia’s logistics and supply lines have been further hit, two Western officials familiar with the matter said. The Ukrainian military is cautious as there’s a risk of becoming exposed once it advances, they said.

Nearly six months into the war, Russia’s campaign to seize full control of Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region is making slow headway, while the intensifying Ukrainian pressure on Kherson has forced the Kremlin to divert troops to the south to shore up its positions.

The strategy of drawing in and cutting off Russian troops on the city’s west bank may presage weeks or even months of positional attacks to wear down occupying forces in Kherson, rather than an outright assault.