Ukraine braces for big Russian onslaught as war anniversary nears

Ukraine expects a “maximum escalation” from Russia in the coming months as the Kremlin backed bonuses for troops who hit Nato weapons. Members of the Western alliance are considering more support for Ukraine as the almost year-long war enters a crucial phase ahead of the winter thaw. Oleksiy Danilov, secretary of the National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine, told Britain’s Sky News that he expected about half of the more than 320,000 soldiers mobilised by Russia late last year would form part of a renewed attack. “I’m conscious the main fights are yet to come and they will happen this year, within two to three months. These will be defining months in the war,” Danilov, the Ukrainian president’s top security official, said. “Russia is preparing for maximum escalation,” he added. “It is gathering everything possible, doing drills and training. “Those countries who help us in our struggle have started to provide us maximum help.” US firm offers Ukraine advanced Grey Eagle and Reaper drones for US$1 In a major U-turn, Germany recently committed to providing Kyiv with main battle tanks, as did the US and other partners. German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius visited the armed forces in the western state of North Rhine Westphalia on Wednesday to learn more about the Leopard 2 main battle tank, 14 of which are being sent to Ukraine. Spain meanwhile wants to supply Ukraine with four to six Leopard tanks, the newspaper El País reported. European Union foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell on Wednesday said he wouldn’t be surprised if countries like the US and Germany also ended up reversing their stance on supplying Ukraine with fighter jets. While some of Ukraine’s Western allies including France and Poland have not ruled out sending combat aircraft to Ukraine, Germany and the US have rejected the idea. While the EU top diplomat refused to say whether he himself was in favour of delivering fighter jets, as his job was “to try to reach a consensus, and one of the best ways is not to take positions that could jeopardise it,” Borrell pointed out that the delivery of main battle tanks to Kyiv had initially also been highly controversial. But eventually an agreement had been reached and this “red line” crossed, he told journalists in Brussels. All arms deliveries to Ukraine have so far been accompanied by warnings over the potential risk of escalating the conflict with Russia further, Borrell added. But the dangers of Nato becoming more involved in the war were spelled out by Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov saying that bonuses could be paid to Russian soldiers for hitting weapons in Ukraine sent from abroad. “As for these tanks, we have already said that they will burn. Of course, even more so if there are such incentives,” Peskov said. EU-Ukraine summit to be held in Kyiv in ‘powerful signal’ to Russia Meanwhile the US, which is supplying Kyiv with Abrams tanks, on Wednesday announced new sanctions targeting Russia’s defence industry. A total of 22 individuals and entities from different countries linked to “a sanctions evasion network supporting Russia’s military-industrial complex” are affected, the US Treasury said in a press release. Among others, the new measures target Russian arms dealer Igor Zimenkov, who is accused of leading the network. “Russia’s desperate attempts to utilise proxies to circumvent US sanctions demonstrate that sanctions have made it much harder and costlier for Russia’s military-industrial complex to resupply [Russian President Vladimir] Putin’s war machine,” said Deputy Secretary of the Treasury Wally Adeyemo in the statement. Russia has picked up momentum on the battlefield in eastern Ukraine and announced advances north and south of the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut in Dontesk. Bakhmut and 10 towns and villages around it came under Russian fire, the Ukrainian military said late on Wednesday. Bakhmut has suffered persistent Russian bombardment for months. As Xi Jinping plans Russia visit, China faces reckoning on Ukraine Avdiivka, another major Russian target, the nearby town of Maryinka and some neighbouring settlements were also hit, the military added. In Kramatorsk, about 55km (34 miles) northwest of Bakhmut, a Russian missile destroyed a residential building and damaged seven on Wednesday, killing at least three people and injuring 20, police said. “Definite increase has been noted in the offensive operations of the occupiers on the front in the east of our country. The situation has become tougher,” Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky said. “The enemy is trying to achieve at least something now to show that Russia has some chances on the anniversary of the invasion,” he added in an evening video address. On Thursday, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin was to preside over another anniversary: 80 years since the Soviet victory at the Battle of Stalingrad, one of the bloodiest in World War II. Putin was expected to travel to Volgograd, formerly known as Stalingrad, to take part in a wreath-laying ceremony at a war memorial and speak at a concert, the Kremlin said. The battle of Stalingrad lasted more than six months, ending with the surrender of German troops on February 2, 1943, after more than a million people were killed. The Red Army’s victory marked a turning point not only for the Soviet Union, which had suffered several heavy defeats, but also for the Allied forces. Putin has frequently drawn parallels between what he calls his “special military operation” in Ukraine and the war against Nazi Germany. Additional reporting by Agence France-Presse and Reuters