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Agence France-Presse

Fighting is raging and Kyiv is relentlessly pressing its allies for more military hardware.
But has Ukraine’s long-promised counteroffensive against the Russian invasion actually begun?
Analysts say Ukraine has stepped up its activity along the front line, seeking notably to pin Russia down and inflict maximum casualties around the flashpoint town of Bakhmut.
Meanwhile, President Volodymyr Zelensky has been on a whistle-stop tour of European allies, winning pledges from Britain, France and Germany of increased military support while insisting Kyiv needs more.
Western capitals are eager to see the offensive start, in the hope Ukraine can make gains, force Russia to the negotiating table on Kyiv’s terms and open a path to ending the conflict.
Ukraine is seeking to take back control of territory occupied by Russian forces in the wake of the February 2022 invasion and also areas, including Crimea and parts of the Donbas, seized by Russia in 2014.
Europe takes step towards making Russia pay for Ukraine war
The battle for Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine has turned into the longest stand-off since the Russian invasion.
Ukraine is now saying it is advancing in the area, retaking Russian positions in Bakhmut’s suburbs.
“I lean towards the interpretation that Ukraine is fixing Russian forces in Bakhmut to keep them committed to a particular front while Ukrainian forces probe different areas,” said Ivan Klyszcz, a research fellow at the International Centre for Defence and Security in Estonia.
“My preliminary conclusion is that these probing and shaping operations will be ongoing but remain at the tactical level, that is, until the leadership decides the best moment to launch a larger operation.”
Moscow’s forces switched several weeks ago into a defensive posture, employing a large number of soldiers, sometimes three lines deep, to hold positions.
Their set-up includes anti-tank ditches, barriers, prefabricated lines of defence like the small anti-tank concrete pyramids known as dragon’s teeth, and trenches for the men.

The Ukrainian counteroffensive consequently risks being deadly and costly in terms of equipment for Kyiv.
But it appears Ukraine has started a period of tests to measure the effectiveness of this defence.
“Ukraine has conducted local counteroffensives in and around Bakhmut to roll back Russia’s flanks and gauge defences in the region.
“Elsewhere, Ukrainian forces are likewise probing Russian defences and reaction behaviours,” said Lucas Webber, co-founder and editor of the Militant Wire news site on global military activity.
Call to manage hopes as China’s special envoy Li Hui visits Ukraine
He said it was “difficult” to say whether the full planned counteroffensive has begun.
“However, these actions suggest Ukraine is preparing for something much larger.
“These could be shaping operations to put Ukraine in a better position when the real action starts.”
He said the full counteroffensive was likely to involve multiple fronts, including operations to take back the parts of the Zaporizhzhia region it does not currently control.

That includes the Zaporizhzhia its nuclear power plant which is still occupied by Russian forces, and the south of the region.
Taking Bakhmut in itself would be a blow to Russia.
The city’s symbolic importance after such a long battle now outstrips its strategic value, especially given the resources used by the Russian army and the Wagner mercenary group under Yevgeny Prigozhin.
In first, Ukraine says shot down volley of Russian hypersonic missiles
“A successful Ukrainian campaign in the region would frustrate Russia and set Moscow’s war efforts back considerably,” said Webber.
Further intrigue comes from the increasingly volatile behaviour of Prigozhin, who is becoming ever more scathing in his criticism of the Russian defence ministry and on Friday accused the Russian army of “fleeing” rather than regrouping around Bakhmut.
A report in The Washington Post on Sunday said Prigozhin had maintained contact with Ukrainian intelligence throughout the war and had even in January offered to give Kyiv information on Russian troop positions if Ukraine’s commanders withdrew their soldiers from the area around Bakhmut.

Some commentators are now arguing he had crossed a line and risks antagonising Russian President Vladimir Putin, but Prigozhin has dismissed the allegations as “laughable”.
Pierre Razoux, academic director of the France-based Mediterranean Foundation of Strategic Studies (FMES), said the current situation was characteristic of a phase where both sides were using feints and games to deceive the other ahead of a major operation.
“The preparatory phases of clandestine actions and deceptions and manipulations seems to have been well launched on both sides,” he said.
“Each side is probably trying to push the other side into a mistake by convincing them to attack where they seem weakest.”


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Ukraine war

Ukraine war: has Kyiv’s counteroffensive against Russia actually begun?

A Ukrainian soldier gives water to a captured Russian army serviceman near the city of Bakhmut. Photo: Radio Free Europe via Reuters

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky has been on a whistle-stop tour of European allies. Photo: Reuters

Ukrainian tanks near Bakhmut, where fierce battles against Russian forces have been taking place. Photo: AP

The head of Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin. Photo: Prigozhin Press Service via AP

Europe takes step towards making Russia pay for Ukraine war

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky addresses the opening ceremony of the Council of Europe summit in Reykjavik, Iceland via videolink on Tuesday. Photo: dpa

(From left) Poland’s President Andrej Duda, Britain’s Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, Norway’s Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre and Moldova’s President Maia Sandu gather for a group photo at the Council of Europe summit in Reykjavik, Iceland on Tuesday. Photo: AP

French President Emmanuel Macron addresses the Summit of Heads of State and Government of the Council of Europe in Reykjavík, Iceland on Tuesday. Photo: Iceland Foreign Ministry via EPA-EFE

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen (centre) greets US Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield during the opening of the Council of Europe summit in Reykjavik on Tuesday. Photo: dpa

Ukraine war: Putin and Zelensky agree to meet African leaders to discuss peace plan

Russian President Vladimir Putin, speaks to South African President Cyril Ramaphosa during a plenary session at the Russia-Africa summit in Sochi in October 2019. Photo: AP

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak walks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to a waiting Chinook helicopter after meetings at Chequers, in Aylesbury, Britain on Monday. Photo: Reuters

As China’s special envoy Li Hui arrives on Ukraine peace mission, observers call for cautious optimism

Li Hui, China’s special representative on Eurasian affairs, will also be visiting Poland, France, Germany and Russia. Photo: Weibo

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on the phone call with Beijing. Photo: EPA-EFE

Then Chinese envoy Li Hui with then Russian prime minister Dmitry Medvedev, in Moscow in 2015. Photo: Reuters

In first, Ukraine says it shot down volley of Russian hypersonic missiles

Loud explosions sounded above Kyiv early Tuesday as Russia launched an intense air attack on the capital. Photo: Reuters

Earlier this month, Ukraine claimed to have shot down a single Kinzhal missile over Kyiv for the first time. Photo: Reuters

News

World

Europe

Russia & Central Asia

For months, there has been talk of a long-awaited Ukraine counteroffensive against Russia’s occupying forces
It appears to be in some sort preparatory phase, as each side tests its opponent before a larger operation


Fighting is raging and Kyiv is relentlessly pressing its allies for more military hardware. But has Ukraine’s long-promised counteroffensive against the Russian invasion actually begun?


Russia

Ukraine

Vladimir Putin

War and conflict