What if Putin wins? US allies fear defeat as Ukraine war aid stalls
- Critical aid for Ukraine is being snarled up by political infighting on both sides of the Atlantic
- European officials are starting to think through the consequences of a victory for Russia
The impasse over aid from the US and Europe has Ukraine’s allies contemplating something they’ve refused to imagine since the earliest days of Russia’s invasion: that Vladimir Putin may win.
With more than US$110 billion in help mired in political disputes in Washington and Brussels, how long Kyiv will be able to hold back Russian forces and defend Ukraine’s cities, power plants and ports against missile attacks is increasingly in question.
Beyond the potentially catastrophic consequences for Ukraine, some European allies have begun to quietly consider the impact of a failure for North Atlantic Treaty Organization (Nato) in the biggest conflict in Europe since World War II.
They’re reassessing the risks an emboldened Russia would pose to alliance members in the east, according to people familiar with the internal conversations who asked for anonymity to discuss matters that aren’t public.
The ripple effects would be felt around the world, the people said, as US partners and allies questioned just how reliable Washington’s promises of defence would be.
The impact of such a strategic setback would be far deeper than that caused by the spectacle of the botched US pull-out from Afghanistan in 2021, they said.