Red lines drawn: Russia’s demands dim hopes for quick end to Ukraine war

Russia took weeks to present Ukraine with a “memorandum” setting out its conditions for a ceasefire, as well as key guidelines for a comprehensive treaty to end the more than three-year-old war. To practically no one’s surprise, it was a list of the Kremlin’s long-standing, maximalist demands that Kyiv and its Western allies see as non-starters. Ukraine had set its negotiating stance before Monday’s direct peace talks in Istanbul, emphasising its readiness to declare a 30-day ceasefire immediately without preconditions that was proposed by US President Donald Trump. Kyiv reaffirmed its refusal to abandon a bid for Nato membership and rejected acknowledgement of Russia’s annexation of any of its regions. Both sides have established mutually exclusive red lines that make any quick deal unlikely. Moscow’s demands, published in the Russian media, make it clear that President Vladimir Putin is determined to ensure the fulfilment of the goals in Ukraine he set when he launched the invasion on February 24, 2022. Key points of the Russian and Ukrainian documents: Moscow’s conditions for a 30-day truce Russia offered Ukraine a choice of two options for establishing a 30-day ceasefire. One option was that Ukraine must withdraw its forces from Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson – the four regions Moscow illegally annexed in September 2022 but never fully captured. The second option, described by Moscow as the “package” proposal, presses Ukraine to halt its mobilisation efforts and freeze Western arms deliveries – conditions that were suggested earlier by Putin. On top of that, the document also demands that Ukraine begin demobilising its military, halt any redeployment of forces and ban the presence of any third-country forces on its soil. The “package” option further proposes that Ukraine end martial law and hold elections, after which the two countries could sign a comprehensive peace treaty. Russia’s terms for a comprehensive peace treaty The Russian document declares that conditions for peace must include the “international legal recognition” of Moscow’s 2014 annexation of Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula and its 2022 annexation of the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions. It says a future peace treaty should have Ukraine declare its neutral status between Russia and the West, and abandon its bid to join Nato. The document demands that Ukraine limit the size of its armed forces, recognise Russian as an official language on par with Ukrainian, ban “glorification and propaganda of Nazism and neo-Nazism” and dissolve nationalist groups – conditions reflecting Putin’s goals from the outset of his invasion. The false allegations that neo-Nazi groups were shaping Ukraine’s politics under President Volodymyr Zelensky, who is Jewish, have been vehemently dismissed by Kyiv and its Western allies. In Russia’s view, a comprehensive peace treaty should also see both countries lift all sanctions and restrictions, abandon any claims to compensation for wartime damage, resume trade and communications, and reestablish diplomatic ties. It also suggests that the peace treaty between Russia and Ukraine be endorsed by a resolution of the UN Security Council. Ukraine’s ceasefire position also remains firm The memorandum that Ukraine submitted to Moscow before the talks and shared with its allies emphasised the need for a full and unconditional 30-day ceasefire to set the stage for peace negotiations. It reaffirmed Ukraine’s consistent rejection of Russian demands for neutral status as an attack on its sovereignty, declaring it is free to choose its alliances and adding that its Nato membership will depend on consensus with the alliance. It emphasised Kyiv’s rejection of any restrictions on the size and other parameters of its armed forces, as well as curbs on the presence of foreign troops on its soil. Ukraine’s memorandum also opposed recognising any Russian territorial gains, while describing the current line of contact as a starting point in negotiations. The document noted the need for international security guarantees to ensure the implementation of peace agreements and prevent further aggression. The Ukrainian peace proposal also demanded the return of all deported and illegally displaced Ukrainian children and an “all-for-all” prisoner exchange. It held the door open to a gradual lifting of some of the sanctions against Russia if it abides by the agreement. The opposing positions make peace seem elusive The sharply conflicting demands leave little hope for any quick progress in talks. “The settlement issue is extremely complex and involves a large number of nuances,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Tuesday. “It would be wrong to expect immediate solutions and breakthroughs,” he added. Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha said Russia had presented “old ultimatums that do not move the situation any closer to true peace”. By maintaining its maximalist demands, Moscow is seemingly unfazed by repeated threats of sanctions by the West or other pressure to make real concessions. Some observers see the Russian memorandum as a way by Moscow to formalise its negotiation position. “Even an unsigned document gives the Kremlin a firmer diplomatic foothold,” said Moscow-based defence analyst Sergei Poletaev. Tatiana Stanovaya of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center noted that the document reflects Putin’s key goal of securing a “friendly” Ukraine without a full-fledged military or ties of any kind with its Western allies. She noted the Russian document offers Ukraine a choice between the two options because Moscow knows that a Ukrainian withdrawal from the four regions “is not viable and seeks to push Kyiv toward the second as the primary course”. At the same time, Moscow’s memorandum appears to indicate that “Russia is open to considering leaving parts of the annexed regions that it does not control to Ukraine”. Stanovaya said Moscow’s maximalist demands mean that “the fighting is set to continue, even if bilateral interactions persist”. Additional reporting by Agence France-Presse

Red lines drawn: Russia’s demands dim hopes for quick end to Ukraine war

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Moscow’s maximalist conditions include territorial concessions and Ukraine neutrality, leaving little room for a swift resolution

Moscow’s conditions for a 30-day truce

Moscow’s maximalist conditions include territorial concessions and Ukraine neutrality, leaving little room for a swift resolution