Turkish incursion into Syria, backed by the US and likely by Russia too, could be a game changer in civil war

Turkey’s incursion into Syria reflects a shift away from its insistence that President Bashar al-Assad be removed from power in any settlement there and may start to close the gap between the international coalitions that have helped keep the country’s civil war raging, analysts and diplomats say.

In recent months, Turkey has indicated a readiness to accept a transitional role for Assad in any political solution, something Unal Cevikoz, a retired senior Turkish diplomat, called a major change.

“Turkey has realised there are more important challenges than removing Assad,” said Cevikoz, and that in turn has opened the door to improvements in Ankara’s relationships with Russia and Iran, Assad’s main backers. Turkey would not have launched “Operation Euphrates Shield” on Wednesday without a green light from Russia, he said.

Outside powers involved in Syria’s conflict have divided sharply over the fate of Assad. Turkey and the Gulf states insisted he must step down before any settlement, while Russia and Iran demanded that he stay in power. The US has carved out a middle position open to a transitional role for him.

The challenges Ankara is now prioritising over Assad include fighting Islamic State, which has stepped up its terrorist campaign inside Turkey, and - even more importantly - stopping the advance of Kurdish forces along the Syrian-Turkish border. Turkey sees the Kurdish militia in Syria as a branch of the Kurdish Workers’ Party, or PKK, an insurgent force it is trying to crush inside its borders.

Wednesday’s incursion plunges Turkey into an intractable conflict that has already sucked in Russia and Iran, lasting longer and claiming more victims than the 1992-1995 war in Bosnia. Since Turkey already hosts 2.5 million Syrian refugees, the chaos across its border poses still another growing challenge.