Analysis Reality dawns in Syria: Bashar al-Assad has won the country’s brutal civil war and his foes have few options left
The key to the Syrian leader’s survival has been his battlefield allies Moscow and Tehran; both have been laser-focused on keeping him in power
In southern Syria’s chilly late winter of 2011, a scrap of schoolboy graffiti reading “Your turn, Doctor” – a mocking call for the overthrow of President Bashar al-Assad – helped spark a ferocious civil war that has left hundreds of thousands dead and millions displaced.
Now, there is a growing diplomatic consensus that Assad, the 51-year-old ophthalmologist who inherited Syria’s leadership 17 years ago from his dictator father, has almost certainly prevailed against efforts to dislodge him militarily – and that his opponents need to come to terms with his political survival as they plot a new course.
The multisided war, midway through a seventh brutal year, is far from over. But Assad’s consolidation of control in key parts of the country, and continued crucial aid from allies Russia and Iran, have contrived to make it virtually impossible for the rebels who once enjoyed US support to drive him from power, long-time observers of the conflict claim.
Bashar al-Assad’s government has won the war militarily. And I can’t see any prospect of the Syrian opposition being able to compel him to make dramatic concessions
“Bashar al-Assad’s government has won the war militarily,” said Robert Ford, a former US ambassador to Damascus who witnessed the uprising’s earliest days. “And I can’t see any prospect of the Syrian opposition being able to compel him to make dramatic concessions in a peace negotiation.”
The government has yet to fully secure areas around the capital, and fighting continues in various pockets of Syria’s east as well as the northwestern province of Idlib. Yet even Assad’s staunchest international adversaries see the continuation of his rule as a fait accompli and have urged the rebels arrayed against him to do the same.
“The nations who supported us the most ... they’re all shifting their position,” said Osama Abu Zaid, an opposition spokesman contacted by phone. “We’re being pressured from all sides to draw up a more realistic vision, to accept Assad staying.”
The key to the Syrian leader’s survival has been his battlefield allies Moscow and Tehran; both have been laser-focused on keeping him in power.