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Agence France-Presse

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan hopes a new “safe zone” in northern Syria will kill two birds with one stone – easing the refugee burden and pushing Kurdish militants away from his southern border.
The US and Turkey have already launched joint patrols this month with the aim of establishing the “safe zone”. But analysts say the scheme is unrealistic.
What is the safe zone?
In his speech at the United Nations General Assembly this week, Erdogan unveiled a chart showing ambitious plans for the zone, that would be 30 kilometres deep and run 480 kilometres along the north of Syria.
He said it could eventually allow two to three million Syrian refugees to return to their country.

That has become a priority for Erdogan, who has faced a growing popular backlash over the presence of 3.6 million Syrian refugees in Turkey – the highest number in the world.
Turkish broadcaster TRT said Friday that the first stage of the plan envisioned one million Syrians being resettled in 140 villages and 10 towns.
The plan would also create a buffer against Syrian Kurdish militants, who control much of the region.
Islamic State

Donald Trump
What will happen?
Experts are sceptical that the plan will come together, despite joint air and ground patrols by the US and Turkey this month.
The US has struggled to balance its ties with Turkey and the Kurdish YPG militia.
“Even if efforts to create a ‘buffer zone’ succeed – and there is no sign that they will – the underlying source of tension will remain and with it, the potential for a Turkish military response to Ankara’s perceived YPG threat,” said Dareen Khalifa, of the International Crisis Group.

She also said the US has made it clear that Washington has “not signed off on any agreement that would entail involuntary relocation of Syrians to the northeast”.
Despite the obstacles, however, Washington is desperate to prevent another unilateral attack by Turkey, which has already launched two cross-border operations against Islamic State and the YPG, in 2016 and 2018.
Before his US visit, Erdogan warned that plans were already in place for a unilateral operation if there was not significant progress on the “safe zone” by the end of September.
Will refugees return?
According to Syria expert Fabrice Balanche, it is not possible to send three million people to the proposed region.
“The liveable area is limited since the majority of the space is semi-desert,” he said, and the region east of the Euphrates river is “very underdeveloped”.


It would also mean major demographic change, since the area is mostly Kurdish and 90 per cent of Syrian refugees in Turkey are Arab.
Hasan Unal, foreign policy analyst at Istanbul’s Maltepe University, said it would be difficult for both sides.
“Are all these people from that part of Syria? If not, they might say: ‘We don’t want to go to somebody else’s land,’” said Unal.
Erdogan has said the zone should extend to the eastern Deir Ezzor region and Raqqa, but Balanche said neither area was ready.
Raqqa still needs reconstruction after the Kurds led a bitter battle to recapture the city from IS in 2017.
According to Unal, the best way to repatriate Syrians would be in cooperation with the Syrian government following a normalisation of relations between Ankara and Damascus.
“As far as international law is concerned, you can’t force them to move.”


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Syrian conflict

Will a ‘safe zone’ for returning refugees be set up in northern Syria?

Turkish army vehicles return after taking part in a Turkish and US army ground patrol in Northern Syria on Tuesday. Photo: EPA

FILE PHOTO - A fighter of the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) fires an anti-aircraft weapon from Tel Tawil village in the direction of Islamic State fighters positioned in the countryside of the town of Tel Tamr, Syria February 25, 2015. REUTERS/Rodi Said/File Photo

FILE PHOTO: Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan gestures as he addresses AK Party and Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) supporters during a rally for the upcoming local elections, in Istanbul, Turkey March 24, 2019. REUTERS/Umit Bektas/File Photo

FILE - In this Sept. 6, 2019, file photo, U.S. armored vehicles travel in a joint patrol of the safe zone between Syria and the Turkish border with the Tal Abyad Military Council near Tal Abyad, Syria. When dozens of heads of state convene for the annual ministerial meeting of the U.N. General Assembly, the lingering conflict in Syria is taking a back seat as tensions in the Persian Gulf and global trade wars take center stage. In its ninth year, many Syrians fear their country’s unresolved war has become a footnote in a long list of world crises. (AP Photo/Maya Alleruzzo, File)

Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan tells UN nuclear power should either be free for all or banned

Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan holds up a map as he addresses the 74th session of the United Nations General Assembly at UN headquarters in New York on Tuesday. Photo: Reuters

Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan speaks during the 74th Session of the United Nations General Assembly at UN Headquarters in New York, September 24, 2019. (Photo by Don Emmert / AFP)

US to drastically cut the number of refugees it accepts, to an all-time low of 18,000

A Central American migrant wrapped in a US flag stands near the El Chaparral border crossing near the US-Mexico border in Tijuana. Photo: AFP

Migrants, who returned to Mexico from the U.S. under the Migrant Protection Protocols (MPP) to wait for their court hearing for asylum seekers, rest at a migrant shelter run by the federal government in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico September 26, 2019. REUTERS/Jose Luis Gonzalez

Men wait in line to get a meal near the Gateway International Bridge where most of the people that live there are asylum seekers that have been sent back under the "Remain in Mexico" program, officially named Migrant Protection Protocols (MPP), in Matamoros, Mexico September 12, 2019. REUTERS/Veronica G. Cardenas

Turkey urges EU to support its plans to resettle 1 million Syrians to ‘safe zone’

Men, women, and children at a camp for the displaced in the Idlib province, northwestern Syria. Photo: AFP

Turkey's Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu gestures as he speaks during a news conference in Istanbul, Wednesday, Aug. 21, 2019. Turkey has extended by two months a deadline for Syrian migrants not registered in Istanbul to leave the city, and return to the specific province where they obtained their registration. (Ahmet Bolat/Pool via AP )

In this photo taken on Tuesday, Aug. 20, 2019, a Syrian boy pushes a pram past Fatih mosque in Istanbul. Syrians say Turkey has been detaining and forcing some Syrian refugees to return back to their country the past month. The expulsions reflect increasing anti-refugee sentiment in Turkey, which opened its doors to millions of Syrians fleeing their country's civil war. (AP Photo/Lefteris Pitarakis)

Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Photo: AP

US military aims to withdraw from Syria by April, Wall Street Journal reports

President Donald Trump speaks at the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS meeting at the State Department in Washington, Wednesday, February 6, 2019. Photo: AP Photo

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World

Middle East


Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan says the zone could allow up to 3 million Syrians to return to their home country
Experts are sceptical that the plan will come together, despite joint air and ground patrols by the US and Turkey this month



Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has unveiled ambitious plans for the zone, which he said would eventually allow up to 3 million Syrians to return to their country. Experts aren’t so sure.


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