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Agence France-Presse

By firing ballistic missiles at the UK-US Diego Garcia base nearly 4,000km (2,485 miles) from its shores, Iran is sending a message that it still has cards to play after three weeks of war, according to experts.
A UK official source said Iran was “unsuccessful” in targeting the Indian Ocean military facility, one of two bases that London has allowed the US to use for certain missions in its war against Iran.
Until now, most had believed Iran – under US-Israeli bombardment since February 28 – was unable to strike at such distances, though the feat was unlikely to alter the course of the conflict.
The launch “is a notable development, since the British island used by US forces lies nearly 4,000km from Iran’s coast”, researcher Etienne Marcuz of the French Foundation for Strategic Research said on social media.
That is “beyond the previously estimated maximum range of Iranian missiles”, he added.
Previous assessments put Iran’s medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBM) at around 3,000km.
The CSIS research centre’s missile laboratory estimated two MRMBs, the Khorramshahr and Sejjil, to have ranges of 2,000km, with the former still in development.
The long range of the Diego Garcia shot could be due to a lighter warhead on the Khorramshahr-4, Marcuz said.
“The lighter the payload, the farther the missile travels,” he said.

Other experts, including Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group, shared that view: “Depending on the weight of the warhead, Iran can increase the range of some of its missiles.”
Tom Sharpe of the UK-based RUSI said Iran has “always had missiles of that sort of range”, even if they were never acknowledged.
He said the launch shows Iran’s military can still “move these mobile launchers around, undetected, spin up and fire without being struck”.
For many analysts, the real point was not hitting a far-off target but sending a signal.
By showing it can strike at long distances, Iran is trying to restore an image shaken by the heavy bombardment it has faced.
“This is a show of force, a political signal that Iran still has ‘secret’ capabilities – at least to the public. But the actual military significance is limited,” Marcuz said.
“This was less about battlefield utility than strategic messaging – signalling to the United States and Israel that misreading Iran’s resolve and capabilities could prove a costly mistake,” Vaez said.


Israeli analyst Danny Citrinowicz of the INSS said the launch also reflected shifts in Iran’s power structure after a series of assassinations of senior leaders.
He called it a “direct result” of the changing balance in Tehran – notably the rising power of the Revolutionary Guards and the aftermath of the killing of supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on the war’s first day.
“Despite his deep ideological hostility towards the West, Khamenei exercised a high degree of caution in deploying Iran’s capabilities. That restraint is no longer guaranteed,” he said on social media.
“The emerging Iran is likely to behave less like the cautious, calculating actor we’ve known – and more like a risk-tolerant, North Korea-style system.”


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What the 4,000km Diego Garcia missile launch reveals about Iran’s intentions

A Sejjil missile (left) is displayed at Baharestan Square in Tehran. Photo: AP

An aerial view of Diego Garcia in the Chagos Island group. Photo: US Navy via AP

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Israeli security forces and rescuers work at the site struck by an Iranian missile in Arad, southern Israel, on Sunday. Photo: AP

A satellite image of Iran’s Bushehr nuclear power plant. Photo: Planet Labs PBC via AP

Iran fires missiles at UK-US base in Indian Ocean’s Chagos Islands, 4,000km away

A US bomber takes off from the Diego Garcia military base in 2001. Photo: Handout via AFP

This image from the US Navy in 2024 shows an aerial view of Diego Garcia. Photo: AP

A man holds a placard during an anti-war demonstration on Saturday outside the UK’s RAF Fairford airbase, used by the US amid the US–Israel conflict with Iran. Photo: Reuters

An Israeli official inspects the damage at an empty nursery school that was hit by Iran on the outskirts of Tel Aviv on Saturday. Photo: AFP

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Middle East

By targeting the UK-US base, Tehran displays a ‘show of force’ and sends a ‘strategic messaging’ to Washington and Israel, experts say


By targeting the UK-US base, Tehran displays a ‘show of force’ and sends a ‘strategic messaging’ to Washington and Israel, experts say.


What the 4,000km Diego Garcia missile launch reveals about Iran’s intentions

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}By targeting the UK-US base, Tehran displays a ‘show of force’ and sends a ‘strategic messaging’ to Washington and Israel, experts say

By targeting the UK-US base, Tehran displays a ‘show of force’ and sends a ‘strategic messaging’ to Washington and Israel, experts say