Putin faces geopolitical headache as US moves in to snatch ally Belarus from Russia

The Russian leader’s relationship with Alexander Lukashenko is getting worse as the US tries to drive a wedge between Minsk and Moscow

The Belarusian president has accused critics in Russia of financing protests against him ahead of the August election

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Russian President Vladimir Putin (L) with his Belarusian counterpart Alexander Lukashenko. Photo: EPA

Published: 12:01am, 14 Jun 2020Updated: 2:51pm, 19 Aug 2020

For Vladimir Putin’s closest ally, Alexander Lukashenko has been downright unfriendly toward the Kremlin of late. After decades of dependence on Moscow, the Belarusian leader is buying oil from the US, and cosying up politically to the West, while ordering a raid on a Russian-owned bank whose former head is challenging him in the upcoming election.

It’s all giving Putin a headache in his own backyard with Lukashenko practically certain to secure a sixth term as president in August and threatening to loosen the strategically important nation’s ties with Russia.

“The old relationship is gradually falling apart and the suspicion here is that Lukashenko is being encouraged from outside,” said Gleb Pavlovsky, a former Kremlin adviser. While Lukashenko has become a “constant irritant” for Russia, “Belarus is very important and Moscow just can’t afford to lose it,” he said.

The strains demonstrate Putin’s difficulties in maintaining relations with even close allies since his 2014 annexation of Crimea from Ukraine upended the post-war order in Europe and raised questions about regional security. Bordering Poland, Lithuania and Latvia, all Nato members, Belarus risks becoming the latest focus of Putin’s geopolitical struggle with the West.

Lukashenko has a history of playing the two sides against each other to maintain enough independence to secure his authoritarian rule over his nation of 9.4 million. Still, the tensions may be greater this time as the collapse in oil prices weakens Russia’s attractiveness as an ally.

The relationship with Lukashenko is getting worse as the US and its allies try to drive a wedge between Minsk and Moscow and Belarus is drawn into the battle for influence, said a Kremlin official.

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