Is Russia’s Putin staying or leaving? New draft law revives speculation on president’s future
- Backers of the legislation say it’s just part of the 68-year-old’s effort to build a less personalised system to succeed him – whenever he decides it’s time to go
- The revival of speculation about the leader’s future highlights how central Putin remains to the Russian state
Some around the Kremlin say the bill has spurred quiet discussion of the possibility that Putin might not linger nearly that long. Backers of the draft, which is expected to become law within days, say it’s just part of the Russian leader’s effort to build a less personalised system to succeed him – whenever he decides it’s time to step down.
“The stable development of the nation is worth a lot,” he said, adding that he hadn’t decided yet whether to run again in the next presidential election in 2024.
Putin says he hopes to resolve friction with US under Biden
But some around the Kremlin are speculating that Putin might try to engineer a move to a new post that would allow him to retain the reins of power without the day-to-day burden of the presidency, according to three people familiar with the discussions, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive issue.
“Putin’s main goal is not to turn into a lame-duck leader, if he were to give up the presidency early, he’d avoid that scenario,” said Olga Kryshtanovskaya, a sociologist at the State University of Management who has studied Russia’s elite for the last three decades.
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What makes Russia’s Putin so powerful?
The idea that the Kremlin boss might resign unexpectedly has surfaced several times in the past, only to be proven wrong.
“The elite’s getting overly nervous, but they’re supposed to worry,” said Konstantin Kostin, a former Kremlin official who now heads a think tank that works with the government. He said he is confident Putin has no plans to step down in the foreseeable future. “We have a mono-centric system in which a huge amount depends on who has the top post.”
‘I don’t intend to experiment on my body’: Russians wary of Sputnik shot
Putin unexpectedly highlighted his own age this week, saying he hadn’t taken the Russian-made vaccine he and his government have touted because it has not been fully tested for people over 60. A number of other senior officials above that threshold have already been shown on national television getting it, however.
Putin has shown signs of growing fatigue with his presidential duties after two decades at the helm, said Gleb Pavlovsky, a former Kremlin adviser.
“Putin already several times thought about leaving office, though remaining a player in the game,” said Pavlovsky. “This thought has been in his head for some time and it doesn’t appear to be connected to any illness.”
Even with protections written into law, true security for Putin will come only from putting loyalists into key positions who will ensure the unwritten rule against persecuting former leaders that is held since the Soviet era persists.
“The guarantee for him won’t be the law but the tradition and the absence of a counter-elite scenario,” says analyst Mikhail Vinogradov. “The elite in Russia understands that to throw the previous leader under the bus won’t benefit anyone.”