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Terror groups could pose threat to US in two years from Afghanistan, Pentagon leaders warn

  • Joe Biden’s decision to withdraw troops from Afghanistan has raised concerns that the country could erupt in full-scale civil war
  • Withdrawal could also provide al-Qaeda space in which to rebuild and plan new attacks on the United States, Pentagon leaders warn

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A United Nations report in January said there were as many as 500 al-Qaeda fighters in Afghanistan. File photo: AFP
Associated Press

An extremist group like al-Qaeda may be able to regenerate in Afghanistan and pose a threat to the US homeland within two years of the American military’s withdrawal from the country, the Pentagon’s top leaders warned.

It was the most specific public forecast of the prospects for a renewed international terrorist threat from Afghanistan since US President Joe Biden announced in April that all US troops would withdraw by September 11.

At a Senate Appropriations Committee hearing, Republican Senator Lindsey Graham asked Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin and General Mark Milley whether they rated the likelihood of a regeneration of al-Qaeda or Islamic State in Afghanistan as small, medium or large.

“I would assess it as medium,” Austin replied. “I would also say, senator, that it would take possibly two years for them to develop that capability.”

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Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and a veteran of the war in Afghanistan, said he agreed.

04:41

Taliban eyes victory as US forces and allies withdraw from Afghanistan

Taliban eyes victory as US forces and allies withdraw from Afghanistan

“I think that if certain other things happen – if there was a collapse of the government or the dissolution of the Afghan security forces – that risk would obviously increase, but right now I would say ‘medium’ and about two years or so,” Milley said.

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Their responses underscored the overall US military fears about the consequences of a complete, unconditional withdrawal. Military leaders over the past few years have pushed back against administration efforts – including at times by then-President Donald Trump – to pull out of Afghanistan by a certain date, rather than basing troop numbers on the security conditions on the ground.

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