US says Russia preparing full-scale invasion of Ukraine, warns of heavy death toll

As many as 50,000 civilians could be killed in an all-out attack, US officials warned, with capital Kyiv captured by the invading force in a matter of 48 hours
They said Russia’s Putin would have the forces he needed for a full-scale invasion assembled by mid-February. Russia denies it is planning to invade Ukraine

Ukraine

Agence France-Pressein Washington

Published: 2:35pm, 6 Feb 2022

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Russia has stepped up preparations for an all-out invasion of Ukraine, but it is not clear if Moscow has decided to take such a step, US officials have said citing intelligence assessments.

Russia has assembled 110,000 troops along its border with Ukraine but US intelligence had not determined if President Vladimir Putin has actually decided to invade, according to officials who in recent days held briefings with members of Congress and European allies.

The officials warned lawmakers that the assembled Russian force on the frontier with Ukraine is growing at a rate that would give Putin the force he needs for a full-scale invasion – some 150,000 soldiers – by mid-February.

A satellite image shows troops gathered at Bakhchysarai, Crimea, on February 1. Photo: Maxar Technologies via AP

They said Putin wants all possible options at his disposal: from a limited campaign in the pro-Russian Donbas region of Ukraine to a full-scale invasion. Russia denies that it is planning to invade Ukraine.

If Moscow does opt for a full-scale attack, the invading force could take the capital Kyiv and topple President Volodymyr Zelensky in a matter of 48 hours, the officials said.

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They estimated such an attack would leave 25,000 to 50,000 civilians dead, along with 5,000 to 25,000 Ukrainian soldiers and 3,000 to 10,000 Russian ones.

It would also trigger a refugee flood of one to five million people, mainly into Poland, the officials added.

President Joe Biden has decided to send American forces to Poland to protect Nato members, as diplomats work furiously to try to persuade Russia to pull its troops back from the border with Ukraine.

The first contingent of US soldiers arrived on Saturday.

American soldiers arrive in Germany on Friday as part of a new deployment of US forces to Europe. Photo: US Army Handout via Reuters

Russia has also announced what it calls joint military manoeuvres with Belarus, where it has sent several battalions to the north of Kyiv and in the Brest region, not far from the border with Poland.

US intelligence has concluded that Russia is continuing to muster a major military force on its border with Ukraine.

Two weeks ago, a total of 60 Russian army battalions were positioned to the north, east and south of Ukraine, particularly in the Crimean peninsula, which Russia annexed after an invasion in 2014.

But on Friday, there were 80 battalions and 14 more were en route from elsewhere in Russia, US officials said.

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They added that some 1,500 Russian special forces soldiers known as Spetsnaz arrived along the border with Ukraine a week ago.

A major Russian naval force is also positioned in the Black Sea, equipped with five amphibious vessels that could be used to land troops on Ukraine’s southern coast, the US officials said.

They added that another six amphibious craft were observed leaving the Barents Sea north of Russia, sailing past Britain and through the Strait of Gibraltar, apparently on their way to the Black Sea.

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In other deployments, Russia has positioned fighter planes near Ukraine, as well as bombers, missile batteries and anti-aircraft batteries, US officials said.

On Thursday, the United States said it had evidence that Russia was preparing a video depicting a bogus attack by Ukraine that would serve as a pretext for a real Russian assault.