Zelensky’s whereabouts are under wraps after he told European leaders in a call on Thursday that they might not see him again alive. But he said he will be staying in the capital.

Ukrainians flee Russian invasion, seeking safety across western borders

On Friday, Zelensky posted a short video proclaiming Ukraine’s continued defence against the Russian invasion. His defiance came even as questions swirled on social media about whether leaders had begun fleeing.

“We are all here,” said Zelensky, who was surrounded by a handful of leaders.

“Our is here, citizens are here. We are all here defending our independence, our state and it will be so further. Glory to our defenders, glory to Ukraine!”

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Russian forces capture Chernobyl, as death toll rises from Ukraine conflict

Russian forces capture Chernobyl, as death toll rises from Ukraine conflict

Putin ordered an invasion of the neighbouring country, an assault that began in eastern Europe’s predawn hours on Thursday.

Here is what it would mean for Zelensky if Russia seized Kyiv:

What happens if Kyiv falls?

Zelensky has repeatedly voiced his intention to stay, even at one point saying during an address on Thursday that when Russians attack Ukrainians “you will see our faces, not our backs, but our faces.”

But experts say that if Kyiv fell to Russian forces that Zelensky would either be killed or become a prisoner of Russia. If he were to escape, he could set up operations in western Ukraine.

Zelensky could run the government from western Ukraine if he has proper communications set up and continued resistance from Ukrainian forces on the ground fighting Russia, said John Herbst, senior director of the Eurasia Centre for the Atlantic Council and a former US ambassador to Ukraine from 2003 to 2006.

“What we’re looking for is there going to be a resistance that can persist and that Russia cannot stamp out,” Herbst said.

How big is the gap between the forces of Ukraine and Russia?

“The whole prospect of Russia running Ukraine I doubt is going to work as smoothly as Putin might expect, whether it’s by a proxy government or by a Russian government, just because there’s a lot of animosity between patriotic Ukrainians and those that Putin might select for the job,” Orenstein said.

What would a government-in-exile look like?

If Zelensky fled Ukraine, he would likely become a leader-in-exile.

There have been several cases in which a country’s government has had to function in exile. During World War II, the Polish government resided in London after the invasion by Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union. The Rada of the Belarusian Democratic Republic is another example of a government-in-exile.

A major dilemma with governments-in-exile is whether they will be treated as legitimate over the administration that is put in place of the country they are representing, said Paul D’Anieri, professor of political science and public policy at the University of California, Riverside.

With the Polish government was in exile, for example, “there was a real dilemma for outside actors as to whether you deal with a government that’s declared to be the government but doesn’t really control anything versus a government who is actually in control in a country, even if you think that they’re evil and they came to power illegally,” D’Anieri said.

Herbst said if Zelensky leads a government-in-exile, it would “be a defeat for Ukraine, but not necessarily an end to the war.”

“The absolute key question is whether Ukrainian resistance to the Russian invasion continues and in some sense, stabilises,” he said, adding that in the next several weeks “Russia will make gains, but do those gains mean an end to effective resistance?”

Herbst said resistance from Ukraine’s and its citizens are going to be Putin’s big problem going forward, regardless of whether Zelensky’s government is toppled or decides to depart.

“This is a real problem for Putin. He needs to win relatively fast,” he said. “And if four months from now Ukrainians are still resisting, Putin has got a big, big problem.”